But but but
Hormuz traffic may or may not return to “ historic averages” as demand destruction has resulted from supply disruption.
China is essentially the only one buying Iranian oil, and purchases have not yet returned to prewar as China has been drawing on its billion barrel reserves
Existing pipeline alternatives to the Strait ramped up for their flow and others are under construction. New energy markets have opened up in the Americas, with the US and Venezuela offering geopolitically stable sources of supply
Exactly. All of that is going on in parallel. The point is that over time, if the regime is still in place, their ability to threaten traffic in the Strait will become less and less important internationally.
You could also point out that China wasn’t the only but the primary purchaser of illicit Iranian oil when we had sanction on (can anyone remember how long it’s been since we haven’t had sanctions on Iranian oil sales?) and were therefore buying it WAY below market price. When and if Iranian oil opens back up to China it will be purchased on the open market and China will have to pay market prices on it.
This isn’t about Iran. Iran is just part of it. This is about America.
I was well aware of that, although pipelines aren't exactly immune to missile or drone attack, but at least the property owner has more time to shoot them down than in the Strait.
We are talking about transients here. Yet consequences to a transient supply disruption can be permanent. If Europe tanks for the lack of supply, don't count on Trump doing well in the mid-terms. That has long-term implications, doesn't it? So cut with the handwave propositions.