The article “stokes fear” of the big one, but that’s just a reaction of the people reading the article. We’re definitely overdue; the last major one was 1857.
But if these models with which the time-scale movie was made are accurate, We’re definitely overdue. On the main fault lime, large earthquakes, nearly completely relieving the pressure, strike every 90 to 120 years. The fault has been building pressure for almost 170 years. The 1857 quake, a 7.9, was 120 years after the previous one to relieve pressure on the North side.
[Quick explanation: In 1857, the entire fault shown in the video slipped, releasing pressure on the entire fault shown. Sometimes, a huge section slides, but not the entire thing. The South side had slipped in 1812, but the North side hadn’t slipped since 1730. So the North side had far more pressure built up, although the quake was large enough that the South side also released all of its pressure. For the purposes of identifying how long the pressure has been building, the 1857 cleared the pressure along the entire fault.]
Part of the reason the 1857 one was so big was that it did release ALL of the built-up energy along ALL of the fault. But the entire fault has been quiet since then, so the point is there is now more energy built up along the entire fault. It seems like we could expect the last one to be at least as big as the 1857 one (7.9)
There was a big one in the SF bay area in 1989 when the bay bridge collapsed. And the Northridge quake in LA.