Of course those and other scenarios are possible, but I don't know of any documentary or other evidence for them. According the account given in 2 Maccabees (which states that the account there was taken from other records, probably now lost to us), Jeremiah, when he hid the Ark and the other Temple implements in the cave on Mt. Nebo, set very specific conditions for when they would be found again.
Can we be confident in that account, and that the ark was not recovered after it was hidden? Given the passage of time and the unsettled nature of that era, I think that other possibilities should be considered.