Apathetic conservatives will be the death of us all.
Guaranteed that there are easily enough conservative voters in Virginia to kill this thing, even with the expected cheating.
Although I understand why we are engaged in the Iran war, that war is not popular with a portion of the MAGA base. The higher prices for gasoline and groceries also do not help with the independent voters. You also have to factor in cheating in Democrat dominated areas of Northern Virginia and the Richmond area.