He may be right. It all depends on the war. This war is very similar to Lincoln’s situation in the summer of 1864. The Union was winning but at great cost and, at that point, the war looked like it was in a stalemate. If nothing changed, Lincoln was going to lose the election. But then Sherman took Atlanta and everything turned around. If nothing changes in the Iran War, the Republicans will get destroyed in the Fall. Trump needs to do something to change the current dynamic. If he does, the polls will turn around.
Good point. There is a Lincoln analogy here. But in some ways, Trump has it worse. Lincoln had considerable support among the media of his time (newspapers).
Trump doesn’t have that advantage.
I would add one more thing. The average northerner had a good idea of why the Civil War was being fought. The attack on Fort Sumter kinda put things in focus.
I really don’t think the average (note “average”) American today has that same understanding when it comes to the Iran conflict.
it wasn’t an accident that this Iran war was started in February. It needs to be finished months before election day, giving the economy a chance to readjust to plentiful oil and good feelings all around. The GOP will fare much better when people are feeling things go in the right direction.