Brian Nathan edges out Josie Tomkow in SD 14 as she pledges a rematch in November

The race was being watched as a potential bellwether ahead of the November Midterms. Democrat Brian Nathan has pulled off a remarkable upset in the Special Election for Senate District 14, defeating Republican Josie Tomkow.

With all precincts reporting, Nathan leads Tomkow by 408 votes, a half percentage point gap that puts the race narrowly outside automatic recount territory.

Tomkow conceded defeat at her Ybor City Election Night party, telling supporters, “welcome to my General Election campaign announcement,” a nod to the fact that whoever lost on Tuesday would be back on the ballot again in November for the district’s regular election.

Nathan will replace former Sen. Jay Collins, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped last Summer to serve as Lieutenant Governor.

“Huge congrats to Senator Brian Nathan on winning Senate District 14! Thank you to the Hillsborough Democratic Party volunteers, Clubs, and Caucuses whose hard work and dedication flipped this seat Blue — a true grassroots victory,” the Hillsborough County Democratic Party posted to Facebook shortly after Nathan’s victory. “Let’s continue to ride this blue wave!”

The results are an extraordinary turn of events, and deliver for Democrats hope that the race serves as a bellwether for November, when the party hopes to overperform compared to recent years in which Republicans have dominated. Historical election results nationwide show the party out of power in the White House typically fares better in Midterm Election years.

Nathan’s victory, though by a razor thin margin, is indeed a big overperformance. Collins won his race four years ago with nearly 55% of the vote, a nearly 10-percentage-point victory.

Data, compared with results, also suggests nonpartisan and minor-party voters may have swung significantly toward the Democratic candidate. It’s also possible some Republicans bucked their party to cast a ballot for Nathan.

Early voting data in the days leading up to the election foreshadowed a Tomkow victory, but suggested Democrats may perform better than the last time the seat was on the ballot.

Early-vote totals on Monday, assuming Republican voters cast a ballot for Tomkow and Democrats for Nathan, suggested Tomkow would have the edge with 44% of ballots cast, while Democratic ballots would account for a little less than 39%.

But by mid-day Tuesday, with Election Day ballots rolling in, it looked like Democrats might not even get an overperformance, with vote tallies showing about 6,000 more ballots cast by Republicans than Democrats.

Even prediction market giant Kalshi had Tomkow at 94% odds of winning, as of midday Monday.

GOP voters account for nearly 39% of the district’s electorate, with nearly 116,000 voters. Democrats account for just 31%, with nearly 93,000 voters. Nearly 27% of the electorate — just over 79,000 voters — is not affiliated with a political party.

Adding to the political shock value, Tomkow entered the race in November and quickly cleared the field, leaving her unopposed in a GOP Primary after announcing her campaign with support from prominent Republican politicians.

Backers include U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee; state Reps. Lawrence McClure, the House budget chief, Danny Alvarez, Traci Koster and Michael Owen; Sheriffs Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County, Grady Judd of Polk County and Chris Nocco of Pasco County; and Hillsborough County Commissioner Christine Miller.

That support also comes with money. The most recent reports show Tomkow had about $148,000 on hand in her official campaign account, with another nearly $315,000 in an affiliated political committee, Friends of Josie Tomkow.

None of that accounts for outside spending on her behalf. But even still, it far surpasses the spending capabilities of her challenger. Nathan has raised less than $65,000 via his official campaign and had just over $12,000 remaining on hand as of Feb. 12, the most recent date for which data is available.

On Monday morning, after early voting had concluded for the race, Republican voter turnout was 3,000 ballots ahead of Democratic turnout. On Friday, the gap had been just 2,000. Earlier in the week it was only about 1,000.

Tomkow currently represents House District 51 but was facing term limits this year.

Over the past several years, Tomkow has proven herself to be a quiet force in the House. As a cattle rancher, she has provided strong representation for agriculture communities and she was a key member of Speaker Daniel Perez’s leadership team, helping shape numerous legislative packages beyond just her own bills.

Nathan is a journeyman who previously worked as an electrical foreman and industrial electrician for Electro Design Engineering in Tampa. He’s now Vice President of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers local 915. Nathan has collected significant support from numerous unions, including the Florida AFL-CIO, the Hillsborough Classroom Teachers Association, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and the local iron workers union.

Nathan is a Navy veteran and Orlando native who moved to Tampa in 2008 after his military career concluded. He attended Hillsborough Community College and earned his undergraduate degrees in philosophy and sociology from the University of Tampa.

SD 14 went unrepresented in the 2026 Legislative Session. Nathan now will be able to serve in a Special Session from the upper chamber to pass a budget, which did not get done during the 60-day Regular Session.

Tomkow’s House seat was also on the ballot Tuesday night, meaning it will remain represented for a Special Session. There, Republican Hilary Holley won her race against Democrat Edwin Perez.

There are lots of comments on the GOP loss in the Palm Beach House seat, but this Tampa Senate is as bad. Tomkow is a very effective rep and an attractive (physically and otherwise) candidate. I've met her at party events, and if she can reverse the outcome in November, she will salvage a promising career.

To be fair, I think most veteran election watchers will tell you: The race for Deputy Assistant to the Dogcatcher in Plumb’s Patch is often a leading indicator of national electoral tides.

It’s also pretty obvious that we are going to get smoked in the midterm elections at all levels. You can deny it all you want, you could point to meaningless elections. The only thing that will save us in the House, is that everything is so gerrymandered that even when the Democrats win, it should be a fairly narrow margin.

But people are getting tired of Trump, they’re getting tired of the chaos. They’re getting tired of the mixed messages, they’re getting tired of nobody being held accountable, they’re getting tired of the lack of focus on affordability and bringing prices down, and they’re mostly pissed about the fact that we are currently in another Mideast war. It doesn’t matter that the Democrats are worse, this is simply based on history. The Republicans and Trump are fighting an uphill battle in a midterm election, and neither one of them are doing anything to ensure their victory. When voters get angry about things, they reflexively revert to the party out of power.

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