At the end of the day, the success or failure of the Iran war will not be judged on eliminating all of the targets listed in the preceding paragraph but upon only one that will, ultimately, determine success or failure: the elimination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The war will ultimately be judged on whether there has been an effective regime change or at least a tolerable regime exchange. Regime change probably cannot be accomplished without the elimination of the Revolutionary Guard.
With regime change, all of the benefits will be realized but without it all the downsides of invasions like this will in due Time accrue. Iran under new benign leadership cannot safely coexist as long as the Revolutionary Guard exists.
There is speculation, quite understandable in the circumstances and indeed understandable in view of Trump's efforts to co-op elements of the Venezuelan regime, that some deal with some elements of more secularly oriented parties in Iran, for example elements of the military, is afoot.
That deal would produce a regime exchange rather more than a regime change but one that, although far from a Jeffersonian democracy, would be likely to behave itself among civilized nations and lead us count the war as a brilliant success.
