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Posted on 02/10/2026 6:25:36 AM PST by MtnClimber
As the United States advances toward the 2030 Census, a structural political realignment is quietly but relentlessly taking shape.
It is not being driven by campaign slogans or cable news theatrics, but by population movement, economic performance, and policy outcomes that are increasingly difficult to ignore. Together, these forces are placing Democrats on the brink of a profound loss of electoral power in the 2030s, one that could permanently reshape the national political map.
Fresh population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau have been analyzed by redistricting experts. The facts indicate a clear and persistent migration away from Democrat strongholds, toward Republican-leaning states in the South and West. When translated into congressional representation, this movement has enormous consequences.
Under multiple projection models, states that reliably vote Republican are positioned to gain House seats and Electoral College votes after 2030. Meanwhile, long-dominant Democrat bastions steadily lose clout.
In one model developed by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting scholar Jonathan Cervas, Texas and Florida are each projected to gain four House seats. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Utah, and Idaho each gain one. Meanwhile, California, New York, and Illinois collectively lose eight seats, with additional losses in Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
A parallel estimate from the American Redistricting Project is slightly more conservative but reaches the same fundamental conclusion: electoral power is shifting decisively away from blue states and toward red ones.
This matters because House seats determine Electoral College votes. When the math is applied to presidential elections, the implications are stark.
CNN analyst Harry Enten demonstrated that if current population trends hold through 2030, Democrats would lose seven House seats nationally while Republican-leaning states gain seven. Under those adjusted figures, a Democrat presidential nominee could secure every traditional blue state—plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—yet still fall short
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
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If they win 2028, they will pack the Supreme Court, legalize 20 million illegals to vote, and effectively disband the constitution. All states will be blue.
America will be a Stalinist police state.
Yeah but Republicans still have to work in those states. The Democrats don’t have to spend a dime in their states to win.
“most Americans are too stupid”
That includes many in MAGA. Look at the way we get suckered into the Democrat narrative.
In MN the narrative was immigrant murderers, rapists, DUI drivers, Welfare Fraud, Political corruption. All of those issues favor MAGA.
But MAGA action changes the headline to MOM OF 3 SHOT BY ICE. Whenever the protestors are in the news the left wins, not because voters are so pro-protestor, but because the left succeeds in suckering us into their headlines and news stories.
Our side needs to stop playing the game of TAR BABY. Tar Baby maybe ugly and deserves to be kicked. But we are stupid to kick it.
Exactly. And it never dawns on them because the future of the Republic is not their concern. Their personal wealth and exercise of power is.
They are going to bring the Republic down around them, in the same fashion they are trying to bring Minnesota down around them.
Well...in our current President, he at least, is attempting not to “let them do so”...which is to me, like poking a stick into that Leftist hornet’s nest.
Leftists are getting crazy because it is undeniable to them that their grift is in the sights of people who want to stop it, and things are actually happening.
Which is why all this fuss is happening in blue localities such as Minnesota, Washington, and Oregon, and not in Texas and Florida.
Not that long ago it was the GOP that was the party of high-propensity voters.
We had pro-life and pro-2A, single issue voting blocks, who came out for every election. Abortion is now pretty much the law of the land as even the reddest states have passed pro abortion legislation and gun rights proponents haven't seen the GOP throw them even the measliest of crumbs when it comes to rolling backs decades of Second Amendment infringement passed by the Democrats over the years. So the two most stalwartly faithful voting blocks the GOP had are demoralized.
MAGA populism has brought in a bunch of new voters but the problem is, they won't get off their sofas to go vote unless Donald Trump by name is on the ballot.
And we lost Mitt Romney/Dubya voters who are now Democratic.
The good news is that unlike in 2020, MAGA has a bench now. So it will be possible to have MAGA without Trump.
This is true as well. And while most will say "good riddance" these were still educated, high-propensity voters who showed up to every election, and still do. Just not for us.
The democrat is in such bad shape there are thinking about moving to Mexico or Haiti.
Gotta think outside the box, otherwise Trump voters are not going to show up.
I suspect that the Democrats will not nominate a blatant leftist like AOC, a left of center type like Tim Walz, or someone like Gavin Newsom, who would have to justify the messes he fostered in California. It is more likely that they will go to a moderate seeming white man like Andy Beshear of Kentucky. The party’s nominating convention is as fixed as the old Soviet Politburo. Look at the treatment of Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020 and the decision, more or less last minute, to dump Joe Biden and replace him with Kamala Harris. The fact that the suburban vote from the Main Line suburbs of Philadelphia to Orange County in California has drifted to the Democrats is where the issue is for that party: hold the former Bush/McCain/Romney Republicans. The Democrats have lost the white South and the white Catholics in the North. The country club types make up for these losses. If you run a candidate too far left, you can lose them or have them sit out, say, a Buttigeg vs. Vance race.
He's promised a midterm convention. That's really about the best he can do.
He can't show up on the campaign trails and at rallies for individual candidates and such. It's simply too dangerous.
Race based districts destroyed our area. We’re seeing now part of the county now in the state Senate represented by conservatives in other counties, and we’ll take that.
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