I’ll stick with my experts who cite $80, but I’d also point out that the reserve numbers often cited (300 mm bbls.) aren’t very reliable: they are SELF-REPORTED with no independent audits, and they swelled during the brief bubble in 2008 when WTI hit $150 for two minutes.
ExxonMobil aims for a corporate breakeven oil price of $30 per barrel by 2030 to ensure sustained profitability. The company’s current portfolio-weighted breakeven is estimated to be around $40-$42 per barrel.
Current and Projected Breakeven Costs
ExxonMobil does not rely on a single oil price for profit across all operations, as breakeven points vary by project and region. The company has focused heavily on reducing costs to be profitable even in a low-price environment.
Current (approx. 2025): The estimated portfolio-weighted breakeven point is in the range of $40-$42 per barrel. Operations in high-margin areas like Guyana remain profitable at oil prices as low as $30 per barrel.
Near-term Target (by 2027): The company has stated it plans to lower its breakeven costs to $35 per barrel.
Long-term Target (by 2030): ExxonMobil’s goal for its global operations is a breakeven cost of approximately $30 per barrel.
This focus on lowering the breakeven point, primarily by investing in advantaged assets (like the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana) and achieving structural cost savings, is designed to make the company resilient to volatile commodity prices and profitable even when oil prices are below $60 per barrel.
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Alex Kimani