(Day 17–19 of protests; as of Jan 15 early morning Tehran time)
Based on verified reports (Reuters, NYT, Guardian, Al Jazeera, Amnesty, HRW, HRANA, Iran International, ISW, NCRI ), rights groups, OSINT, smuggled videos/eyewitness accounts, and X posts (Farsi/English; delayed due to blackout >7 days, ~1% connectivity).
| Date / Period | Category | Description (verified details) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | Suppression & Defiance | ● Blackout day 6; scattered clashes Tehran/Mashhad/Kermanshah ● Eyewitness videos: live fire on crowds; Basij/police targets burned ● Death toll updates: HRANA ~2,400+; IranIntl/IHR 12,000+ feared (Jan 8–9 peak) ● Morgues overflow (Kahrizak footage); funerals → new protests ● Regime MP warns of unrest; partial phone access reveals higher casualties |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Ongoing Violence & Intl Response | ● Blackout day 7 (144+ hours); protests persist in pockets despite repression ● Regime hunts Starlink devices; raids homes; 18,000–50,000+ arrests reported ● Verified killings: children/minors among dead; sniper/fire from rooftops ● Reza Pahlavi video: outlines free Iran vision (end nuclear program, recognize Israel, Cyrus Accords) ● Trump: killings "stopped" (no major protests night prior); doubts Pahlavi support ● Iran FM on Fox: denies high toll ("hundreds only"); claims exaggeration ● UN/Amnesty: demands action; crimes against humanity warnings |
| Jan 15, 2026 (Early/Ongoing) | Persistence Amid Blackout | ● Blackout enters day 8; delayed reports of continued arrests/executions threats ● Smuggled messages: resistance grows; calls for global pressure ● Intl: US debates intervention; regime leaders reportedly moving assets abroad ● Total estimates: 2,000–20,000 killed since Dec 28; unprecedented since 1979 ● Iranians urge world: "Be our voice"; historic defiance vs massacre-level force |
Current as of January 15, 2026 early (extremely volatile; info delayed by blackout). Scale rivals/exceeds past uprisings; people show extraordinary courage.
Re Verified killings:
Yet the President insists the killings have stopped. In his rush to try to prevent deaths, he stepped in it.
Perhaps he wants to prepare a perfect operation, which takes time.
Perhaps the mullahs are hiding among innocents, so he has no perfect shots.
Perhaps he doesn’t want to look as though Pahlavi is directing him.
Perhaps his negations with Russia and China would be hurt if he took action.
We will never know, and doubtless he has good reasons. But it’s painful to watch the best and brightest of Iran die after his tacit promise.