The recent election in Tennessee should be a warning - the Republican won by 10 points - in a deep red congressional district where Trump won by 22 points.
Democrats will ramp up their fraud efforts during the mid-terms to close any gaps.
There are two problems. First, while most leftist media outlets, whether old school outlets like the Washington Post and NBC or podcasts like The Young Turks, repeat the same talking points, even as in the case with TV, saying almost word for word the same narrative. In contrast, the conservative and alt-right media have a problem in staying on task. The old joke about herding cats applies here. While having less reach and mostly confined to talk radio from 1990 through 2015, the various talkers were to a great extent imitators of Rush Limbaugh, so the narrative remained consistent. However, with the rise of neo-isolationists like Thomas Massie and alt-right podcasters who are either libertarian or conspiracist, the latter flirting with 1920s-1930s anti-Semitism, there is a disparate message. Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, and Candace Owens dispute sizable portions of the Trump Administration actions, with podcasters like Nick Fuentes totally off the MAGA reservation. As a result, we have the conservative base, particularly young white men, possibly turned off by or even against Trump. There is a factor of conspiracy theory addiction, where the latest revelation of evil actions becomes fodder for disaffected listeners to many alt-right podcasters.
Second, there has been insufficient effort to break the political and financial power of the Left, specifically the Democratic political machines. To some extent, Trump's hands have been tied by a combination of blue states fighting Administration demands, Clinton/Obama/Biden appointees to lower Federal courts, and reluctant RINOs in Congress. However, the President does not have anything like full control of the Executive Branch and there are still large numbers of Obama/Biden stay behind networks.
Trump is Trump. Greene also won +22. But that was a Presidential year. This was a special election in December. I voted early in November.
10 points is big. The part of Nashville in the 7th has only been there for 3 years. That is where she got her votes. It’s 14 counties and covers a lot of rural areas.
Turnout was about half from 2024. Special elections are always like that.
Turnout will need to be better in 26.