Many folks have been talking recently about AI’s role in the labor market. And over the past two days, we’ve seen two high-profile national television interviews on the subject...
In an interview with 60 Minutes that aired on Sunday evening, Dario Amodei – CEO of AI startup Anthropic, OpenAI’s smaller rival – reiterated his concerns about how AI will impact the unemployment rate.
In the past, Amodei has said that AI could push the unemployment rate to 10% to 20% within the next five years. And he has also said that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level jobs.
In August, the most recent jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (until September’s release this Thursday), showed that 9.3% of college graduates aged 20 and 24 hit are out of work.
That’s the highest unemployment rate for that demographic since July 2021 – when the economy was still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. If you exclude the COVID period, it’s the highest level since July 2014.
AI could make this much worse...
Every year, 3.3 million job openings require a bachelor’s degree, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These include positions like market-research analysts, accountants and auditors, and marketing specialists.
With more than 2 million college grads entering the workforce every year, there have typically been plenty of openings for graduates into these white-collar careers to find jobs.
But now that number could be cut in half (based on Amodei’s estimate). There may only be between 1.5 million and 1.7 million job openings for the same 2 million graduates.
If that ends up being the case, it’s easy to see how Amodei got to his 10% to 20% estimate – even if it is just for this one demographic.
AI has the potential to open up new job opportunities that we just can’t see yet. But in the meantime, it looks like the harm AI causes in the labor market will take center stage.
>> In the past, Amodei has said that AI could push the unemployment rate to 10% to 20% within the next five years. And he has also said that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level jobs.
WELL THEN!!! Time to implement BMI. Am I right?
Slouching toward the Close of the Age. The Day of the LORD. The End Times. Call it what you will...
>> AI has the potential to open up new job opportunities that we just can’t see yet.
So your faith is in AI? Oh Lord.
Smart people will always find work, but the jobs for dumb people get fewer and fewer, and there seems to be more and more dumb people.