Just some random thoughts. Some don’t necessarily reflect my personal beliefs, but may represent what people out there are thinking.
It’s mostly the base that votes in off-year elections. Dems appear to have had success in ginning up anger and energy among their base, partly by those silly “No Kings” protests and through general agitation. Our base isn’t particularly fired up right now.
The Democrat strategy of starving their voters into submission seems to have worked. People who are starving don’t care whose fault it really was, they tend to blame the party in (apparent) power.
VA, in particular, is heavily populated by Federal workers who depend upon the US Treasury. Of course they are unhappy about being furloughed and laid off.
Trump has spent a lot of time abroad fixing other countries’ messes, but voters would have preferred he concentrate on the U.S.
Trump is cutting-off their COCAINE..
The Democrats were effectively in organizing.
Trump will do his part next year with the UFC fight at the White House and then the convention before the Midterms.