Most likely scenario:
Israel beats Italy and Moldova.
Italy beats Estonia and Moldova.
Both teams would be tied with 15 points.
1st tiebreaker is goal differential.
Right now Italy is +5, Israel is +4.
I think it’s impossible for Israel to get a wild card but I’m not sure.
Ouch! Norway beats Israel 5-0. It was only 4-2 in their previous match. Italy plays Estonia later today, and Norway next month.
Israel and Italy play on Tuesday.