I know I’m going to get flack for this...but Prop 13 is a massive regressive wealth transfer from the young to the old...why keep taxes artificially fixed depending on an asset you own, while those without said asset don’t benefit.
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No flame, but return question why should someone be taxed for a potential profit (increase value of the home) or more importantly why should someone on social security that has lived in the same home be forced to sell because they can not afford the property tax?
A relatively few stay in the same home they bought 40 years ago, and the way it works is when sold, the property tax is reset to the new number. Over time every home will have turned over and the property tax will go up.
I asked AI for a better answer, here is the results
Yes — it’s **safe to say** that:
### ✅ The number (and percentage) of homes in California with a **1975 base-year property tax assessment** is **declining** over time.
And…
### ✅ It will **eventually reach zero**, assuming no major policy changes.
## Why it’s declining
Under **Proposition 13**, property is re-assessed when:
* It is **sold** (change of ownership),
* It undergoes **new construction**,
* Or under **certain inheritance events** (some of which trigger reassessment, others don’t depending on Prop 19 rules).
That means:
* Every time one of those events happens to a home with a 1975 assessment, the base year is updated to the new market value.
* Over time, as original owners move, sell, pass away, or renovate, the old assessments are being replaced.
## Will it reach zero?
Yes — **eventually**, all properties that were assessed based on 1975 values will either:
* Be sold or transferred,
* Be rebuilt or improved significantly (triggering reassessment),
* Or passed on in ways that now **trigger reassessment** under **Prop 19 (passed in 2020)**.
### Prop 19 closed many loopholes:
Before Prop 19, children could inherit property and keep the low Prop 13 base-year tax in many cases. Now, this is **much more limited**, especially for non-primary residences.
So the aging population + Prop 19 = accelerating reassessment of old properties.
## Rough outlook
* In the **1980s**, \~40–50% of homes had 1975 base-year values.
* By the **2020s**, that dropped to \~15–20% in many counties.
* In **20–30 years**, it’s plausible that **almost no homes** will retain the 1975 base year — possibly near **zero**.
Of course, this assumes the law doesn’t change again to allow broader inheritance transfers or similar exceptions.
Would you like a visual or projection graph of how that decline might look? I can generate that.
As you can see eventually those that benefit from the 1975 tax assessment will be zero and then normal turn over will result in homes being re-assessed at a new rate,