Posted on 08/19/2025 11:48:47 AM PDT by dangus
Winsome Earl-Sears is surging back into viability in the Virginia Governor's race. Yes, she's still down seven, compared to the margin of error of 4.4 points, but she was down seventeen in the same poll. Roanoke College conducted the poll between August 11th and 15th and issued a press release today, August 19th. The previous poll was done between May 12 and May 19th.
I never believed she was down 17 points. Incredibly, it is even mathematically possible for her not to have improved at all; a margin of error means the percentage for *each* candidate could be off by 4.4 points. So the margin could be 8.8% off for each poll. Even though that would be highly unlikely, if the spread between the candidates were 12 points, either poll result would be plausible.
On the other hand, Roanoke polls consistently favor the Democrats. In 2021, Roanoke polls taken in August and Semptember showed the winner Youngkin losing by seven and eight points; he won by two. They also overestimated the Democrats in 2016, 2020 and 2024.
Overall, Winsome Earl-Sears still has to be considered an underdog, but watch out. She could win some earl-y seers some bets.
The CIA candidate is catching heat from all over.
As goes Fairfax (DC Work from home bunch), goes Virginia. The Beltway bureaucrats will not be denied. So unless the rest of the state gets hughly and series involved, Sears will lose.
Win Some!
It’s in how they count the votes. They usually count until the Democrat wins but that didn’t work last time. It’s amazing that the cities have the slowest vote counters.
Those are called “holdback” cities, because they wait for the other precincts to report their votes, and then they know how many votes they need to “find” in order for their favored candidate to win.
My guess is the previous Presidential election was so blatantly filled with voter fraud that they were reluctant to use too much force.
Trump and the RNC need to step into this big time. Yesterday. Sears was not the best choice, but the Democrat is a horror story.
The way this is moving reminds me of Larry Hogan against Anthony Brown in 2018. I remember telling my wife, “Watch the trend line.”
I have little hope for her. First, black conservatives never win (Tim Scott was appointed, before anybody says anything). NOVA is pissed off b/c they are losing their cushy government jobs and government contracts. And the party in power always faces headwinds in off year elections.
SMETHPORT, Pa. (AP) — Some Democrats here in rural Pennsylvania are afraid to tell you they're Democrats.The party's brand is so toxic in the small towns 100 miles northeast of Pittsburgh that some liberals have removed bumper stickers and yard signs and refuse to acknowledge their party affiliation publicly. These Democrats are used to being outnumbered by the local Republican majority, but as their numbers continue to dwindle, the few that remain are feeling increasingly isolated and unwelcome in their own communities.
"The hatred for Democrats is just unbelievable," said Tim Holohan, an accountant based in rural McKean County who recently encouraged his daughter to get rid of a pro-Joe Biden bumper sticker. "I feel like we're on the run."
The climate across rural Pennsylvania is symptomatic of a larger political problem threatening the Democratic Party ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Beyond losing votes in virtually every election since 2008, Democrats have been effectively ostracized from many parts of rural America, leaving party leaders with few options to reverse a cultural trend that is redefining the nation's political landscape.
The shifting climate helped Republicans limit Democratic gains in 2020 — the GOP actually gained House seats despite former President Donald Trump's loss — and a year later, surging Republican rural support enabled Republicans to claim the Virginia governorship. Toxic Dems
no worries
the winning votes are already loaded up on a “missing” data stick
i believe that is how she won her seat
It’s amazing that the cities have the slowest vote counters.
It is where the population lives. I’d guess it’s easy to count highland county with 2,321 voters compared to 1.1 million voters in Fairfax county.
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