...been coding since ‘83, as a kid, leading to a career in all sorts of software - embedded systems, web front/back, custom database apps, safety critical systems, graphics rendering engines, that has evolved toward automotive vehicle architecture, where it all comes together.
I agree with many aspects of your post. Things are evolving more rapidly. AI is disrupting. Capabilities are more available to more people, without traditional backgrounds.
That said, they’re not ‘software engineers’. Similarly, when I hear, “today’s kids know how all this stuff works”....no, they don’t, they know how to USE technology that has been made easy to use for non-technical people. E.g. smartphone.
There’s not enough software engineers, especially for industries where safety critical applications are involved....’software is eating the world’. AI enables better productivity - but the appetite for more productivity will only grow because of it.
Yes, the workforce will shift, it always does. I just don’t believe it’ll radically reduce the need for developers, it’ll just spread out the spectrum of skills needed for a greater range of needs. Even for those that do lower-level software, or safety critical systems, AI can help with productivity - but cannot replace (liability). It allows a team to be more productive, when we’ve decades of work to do. I still need more people, not less.
Things like web applications, especially just for presentation, marketing, and e-commerce, are easier targets. Complex custom systems (esp. safety critical) require full completeness of requirements, which has always been the problem - the customer never provides 100% requirement completeness (nowhere close). This is where real skill comes in, deeply understanding the problem. This is where AI falls, at least today.
Nobody knows how this will all play out. AI is accelerating because of AI. I’m not sure where we’ll be in just 5 years. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong. What we can’t do is stop educating each generation of how all this stuff actually works, real computer science.
Totally agree! It seems few out there, the "coders", actually do not have a clue.