Putin will make Russia into what China was under Mao. A pariah nation with few trading partners.
Putin could’ve made Europe totally dependent on Russian energy and at one point, Germany was sucking up to Russia. No rapprochement with the west for Russia for decades. They have to look to China for trade and sustenance. They’ll only be a junior partner and who knows if China will bite off some of Siberia.
In 2021, Russia was on the verge of complete political and economic control of Germany, and by blocking pipelines from the middle east, had made much of Europe dependent on them for energy. NATO was dying on the vine, its military spending in a 3 decade decline. A quick, decisive war with Ukraine probably would have caused the collapse of NATO, and returned Russia to Great Power status. With a leadership vacuum in the White House, it was an incredible opportunity that Putin couldn't pass up. He just underestimated Ukraine's ability and willingness to fight. Trump warned them during his first term to break their energy dependence and spend on defense. They didn't listen, even after the first invasion/occupation/annexation in 2014. Weakness invites aggression. Si vis pacem, para bellum.