There are many indications that Putin is desperately operating under increased domestic pressure. The inflation rate, the fall of the currency, the increasing shortages to the consumer, the banking crisis, the interest rates, the abandonment of Russia by Iran and to a lesser extent China, the need to hire mercenaries from North Korea, the massive battlefield casualties approaching a thousand a day, the exhaustion of the massive Soviet equipment stockpile evidenced by the use of antiquated tanks and vehicles converted into stationary artillery pieces, the equipment of soldiers with bicycles and motorcycles, the murder of Putin's own apparatchiks, the removal of his generals, the liquidation of oligarchs, and now Trump's threats of massive sanctions and renewal of arms shipments, all suggest Putin's options are narrowing at an accelerating rate.
So the question becomes, is Putin attempting to improve a negotiating position or is he really trying with a massive aerial blitz against military and civilian targets to win the war? Attacks against civilian targets are certainly well documented in Putin's playbook.
But civilian targeting rarely succeeds in winning wars. Military targets and infrastructure are far more productive. The observation is commonplace that the Ukraine war is similar to World War I in its static trench warfare but it is well to remember that that war began and ended as a war of maneuver. Indeed, the Germans found a way to penetrate Allied lines in a lastgasp effort and the allies in their turn subsequently found a way to roll through German defenses to bring the war to an end.
It is difficult to make judgments from the popular press about the relative success or likelihood of success of either party; it is even more difficult to make sense, much less an intelligent judgment, out of the sweeping conclusionary but unsupported statements made on these threads, usually about the imminent defeat of Ukraine.
It is possible that Trump's about-face is not the result solely of his frustrating conversation with Putin, it might well be that he has been thoroughly briefed by our intelligence agencies who informed him of the likelihood of a disintegration within Russia either domestically or simply of its power to wage war. So Trump has now opportunistically decided to get on the right side of history and support Ukraine.
One can speculate that it is some other factor that has motivated Trump. For example, he might actually be motivated by the loss of life which no doubt is accelerating under these attacks. This long stated concern of Trump's might conceivably now cause him to incur resistance in his own base and some embarrassment internationally for his flip-flop, simply because it is the right and humanitarian thing to do. One must observe, however, that the facts on the ground there have not changed, except perhaps in degree, since he took office a second time. More likely, intelligences advise Trump that the matter in Ukraine cannot much longer hang in the balance, one side or the other must crack and relatively soon.
If the parties are exhausted enough to negotiate a real cease-fire, it might be that Trump, equally with Putin, are making moves now to improve negotiating positions. Putin with his increased attacks, Trump with his about-face, no and ended sanctions, and resumption of arms deliveries.
