Titan has entered the chat.
https://www.space.com/4968-titan-oil-earth.html
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/titans-surface-organics-surpass-oil-reserves-on-earth/
https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/titans-surface-organics-surpass-oil-reserves-on-earth/
Titan is a orbiting a gas giant, it’s methane is from the solar nebula it condensed at outer solar system temperatures.
Earth lost it’s primordial gasses during it’s 200+ year molten phase in it’s formation and the solar wind stripped all the original atmosphere away when the sun was younger and much higher solar winds.
Again no one anywhere EVER has presented to us the petroleum geologist community at any of our scientific community evidence of the affirmative for abiotic liquid hydrocarbons. Not at SEG,AAPG,GSA I am a research scientist member in good standing in all three societies.
And yes we do know how much technically recoverable oil is in place, every basin on earth has been surveyed, studied, and quantified. Your argument is just wrong, flat out wrong. Every oil every produced from any basin has at least 3 usually more absolutely conclusive evidence of biological origins. The carbon isotopic ratios, there is clear geochemistry markers that only occur in microbial plant life the list goes on.
As for decreasing production the Permian is already showing not only type curve declines due to the geopressure gradients drop via total hydrocarbon system depletion. Owen posted the production bible in another post it’s very telling about the overall health of that basin.
I have personally drilled well over a thousand Permian shale wells in a ten year period I can confirm with conclusive evidence that basin is in decline the geopressure is falling off and the type curves absolutely confirm this.
We need to as a species prepare for the inevitability of liquid hydrocarbons being too valuable to burn to the sky it’s not if it’s WHEN. We have a couple decades to bootstrap using those precious resources into a energy and chemicals system that will have access to a lot less liquid hydrocarbons and much higher orices.
It should also be pointed out that titan does not have liquid hydrocarbons that would be liquid on earth at our pressure and temperatures.
Titan has methane it’s largest amount, then Ethane A byproduct of methane breakdown and a major component of Titan’s surface liquids. Both of these are only liquids because it’s 200 below zero on titan.
Acetylene,Ethylene, propane, diacetylene, methylacetylene, benzene. All in very small percentages. Every one of these form when high energy photons from cosmic rays hit methane in the atmosphere of Titan they didn’t form under ground and migrate up in titan. We can take methane on earth and hit it with high energy photons and get the same products.
None of these are proof of abiotic liquid hydrocarbons of the crude oil family. They are left overs from the gas nebula that was present when the solar system coalesced around massed via gravity. Earth’s share of these volatile gases methane specifically was lost because the earth was molten for millions of years before it’s crust cooled enough to be solid every bit of methane was out gassed and stripped by solar wind.
It’s fantasy and cope to point to a body in the deep cold outer solar system and say that’s why we will never run out. No the geological conditions are not even in the same league. The only evidence of mantle methane is near subduction zones where water ladder sediments are pulled down into the upper mantle and heated to the point where water cracks to H2 and O2 the H2 if it finds a carbonate also being cracked into CaO and CO2 can under limited conditions form CH4 the temp and pressure is so high that most of cracked to solid C and the H2 bonds with a silicate forming a hydrosilicate. There is no mechanisms to polymerize CH4 into CH2+CH2+n chains in fact the kinematics its exactly the opposite any of those chains would be instantly cracked to C and H2 at those temps. It’s easy to look at the C isotopes and spent carbon that was biological vs carbonate minerals any CH4 made from high temp carbonates have a distinctive C isotopes signature. Very little has been found the traps for it’s accumulation are not present up dip in the strata it is being formed in deep at the mantle interface. Some hydrothermal vents flow small amounts of deep chemical methane it is not something you can capture and use for fuel it’s in the ppt range and limited to few spots in the deep ocean floor.