Well, I’d guess he pulled those “odds” out of his butt.
I’d go with the opinion of a retired U.S. Admiral and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander over a podcaster or anonymous keyboard warrior.
Regardless, when the President of the United States demands unconditional surrender, advises citizens of a 10 million strong capital to evacuate, and says we can kill their head of state but are holding off for now, my gut tells me that at the very least chances are a hair over 50/50 we’re about to wage war.
This type of OPSEC speculation puts our troops at risk. These are probably the same weenies that went hysterically ballistic over Hegseth's phone chats.