I have my doubts that Russia has the materials left for prolonged offensive operations
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Um
They are actually producing many more tanks, missiles and artillery shells than before the war and continue to expand production and Capacity
For example, They are building a large explosive plant in Siberia for artillery shells coming on line later this year
They have expanded production of drones in house and recently Introduced a new drone that has a larger payload, longer range and is more stealthy and is now mass producing it
Plus of course arms from Iran and North Korea
They are actually producing many more tanks, missiles and artillery shells than before the war and continue to expand production and Capacity
Well, if you complete 5 tanks a year and increase production 25, that’s a 500% increase. If you lose 50+ tanks a month, your increase means nothing. So, you lie about your production and get stores from China and North Korea. Then they start running out of stuff, and you start using Donkeys, Horses, and meat waves to keep up with the attacks. What do you see happening there now?
The problem with wasting all your people and supplies, is that you become vulnerable to claustrophobic collapse. War is deception, you look weak when you’re strong, strong when you are weak. When Gen. Patton realized that the NAZI were using horses and carts to move supplies in 1944, he knew the end was near for Germany.
The price of oil is going down, availability up, in a petrol based economy. The Russians are running out of everything, and using animals, motorcycles, carts, private cars to move supplies. The Ukrainians have been playing a defensive war, bleeding the Russians. I don’t know if the Ukrainians have the supplies and people to mount an offensive. The summer, with dry ground, air cover from F-16’s a drones, and tanks and APC’s designed for breakout(speed), we will discover if they have been playing the long game.
Vlad the invader might be willing to negotiate, when things go way south. I figured he would play it the way he has so far, and I am certain so did Trump.