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To: All; speaker; johnson


Speaker Johnson's Claim on Federal Spending Cuts

Claim:
Speaker Johnson stated that the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" (2025) is the largest federal spending cut in at least 30 years, possibly ever, with over $1.5 trillion in cuts.

Key Findings:
The bill proposes $1.2-$1.7 trillion in cuts over 10 years (0.3%-0.5% of GDP), per CRFB Breaking Down the One Big Beautiful Bill.

Historical cuts were larger:
Post-WWII Demobilization (1945-1948): Spending fell from 45.5% to 10.8% of GDP (34.7% reduction), with a 17.5% single-year drop in 1946.

Budget Control Act of 2011:
1.0% of GDP over 10 years ($1.2T).

OBRA 1990:
0.8% of GDP over 5 years ($500B).

Johnson's claim is incorrect; larger cuts occurred within 30 years (e.g., 2011) and historically (post-WWII).


Federal Spending Cuts Post-WWII

Action/EventYear(s)Reduction (% of GDP)Description
Post-WWII Demobilization1945-194834.7Spending dropped from 45.5% to 10.8% of GDP post-WWII.
Budget Control Act of 20112012-20211.0$1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years via sequester.
OBRA 19901990-19950.8$500 billion in deficit reduction over 5 years.
Fiscal Responsibility Act2024-20330.4Modest cuts via debt ceiling deal.
OBRA 19931993-19980.4Cuts and tax increases for deficit reduction.
Balanced Budget Act 19971997-20020.4Medicare/Medicaid reforms to balance budget.
Personal Responsibility Act 19961996-20010.1Welfare reform with modest cuts.
One, Big, Beautiful Bill2025-20340.3-0.5$1.2-$1.7 trillion in cuts over 10 years.


Calculating inflation adjustments

The CPI for 1938 was around 11.5, using 1983 as the base year, per the Minneapolis Fed. It's a starting point for inflation calculations.

For 2025, the CPI is 320.8, based on April data with 1983=100, per the BLS. This helps calculate how much prices have changed since 1938.


Sources:

CRFB - Breaking Down the One Big Beautiful Bill
CRFB - House Spending Cuts
Mercatus Center - Postwar Miracle
U.S. Government Spending
BEA - Historical GDP

4,702 posted on 05/25/2025 8:04:55 AM PDT by foldspace
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To: All; Trump







4,703 posted on 05/25/2025 8:05:55 AM PDT by foldspace
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To: foldspace

I doubt these are real cuts. In Washington accounting, they just cut the rate of growth rather than hold the budget the same and cut from there. No business operates like this.


4,739 posted on 05/25/2025 3:14:24 PM PDT by Metrobank
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