TEXAS: Why the GOP is nervous about Ken Paxton's Senate run

Sen. John Cornyn has long been a reliable conservative in Congress. But that may not be enough to get the Texas Republican reelected...

The Cornyn-Paxton primary fight is a "proxy war" in the GOP, said Axios. "Top MAGA luminaries" are skeptical of Cornyn because of his pro-Ukraine stance and work on a bipartisan gun bill after the 2022 Uvalde school massacre. The senator is the "epitome of the establishment," said Steve Bannon, an ally of President Donald Trump, to Axios. Paxton, meanwhile, carries a reputation as a "pro-Donald Trump knife fighter," said Axios. His candidacy is a "warning shot," said MAGA influencer Charlie Kirk on his eponymous radio show.

This makes Trump's approval critical in the race, said The Hill. The president said Thursday he will make an endorsement "at the right time." Cornyn has already been endorsed by Majority Leader John Thune (R-N.D.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott (S.C.). But the president's nod will make the biggest splash. Trump is not tipping his hand. "They're both friends of mine," he said Saturday.

Paxton's new campaign is "becoming a major headache for Republicans," said Politico. They're worried that Trump "could elevate more MAGA-aligned challengers" to sitting GOP senators, "forcing a round of bitterly contested primaries." Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana are seen as vulnerable to challenge from the right. That could "complicate" the Republican Party's efforts to retain control of the Senate in 2026, even though the map is "heavily tilted" in their favor. The challenge: GOP leaders "need Trump but also know they can't control him."

Another "overriding fear" is that a bitter Texas primary will be expensive, said CNN. The campaign could cost the party more than $100 million, "siphoning money from other critical battlegrounds."

I decided to ask the AI one final question that I should have thought of before.

Q: In your opinion, which is the more plausible explanation for Paxton's impeachment by the Texas House, the severity of the charges against him or the political landscape in 2024 and 2026?

The impeachment of Ken Paxton by the Texas House is best understood as a product of both the severity of the charges against him and the political landscape leading up to the 2024 and 2026 elections. However, the political dynamics within the Texas GOP likely played a decisive role in the timing and urgency of the impeachment process. Here’s the breakdown:

Severity of the Charges

Substantial Evidence: The House impeachment was grounded in serious allegations supported by extensive documentation, including testimony from senior aides, emails, and financial records. The 20 articles of impeachment detailed credible claims of bribery, abuse of office, obstruction of justice, and retaliation against whistleblowers. For example:
- Paxton allegedly intervened in legal matters to benefit donor Nate Paul, who in return provided personal favors (e.g., home renovations, employment for Paxton’s mistress).
- Whistleblowers within Paxton’s office provided firsthand accounts of misconduct, leading to a $3.3 million settlement that alarmed House members.
Bipartisan Support: The House vote to impeach Paxton (121-23) included a majority of Republicans, suggesting many lawmakers believed the evidence warranted accountability, regardless of political affiliation.

Political Landscape in 2024 and 2026

Factional GOP Divisions: The impeachment exposed a deepening rift between the Texas GOP’s establishment wing (aligned with Speaker Dade Phelan and Sen. John Cornyn) and Paxton’s pro-Trump, anti-establishment faction. Paxton’s growing influence posed a direct threat to Cornyn’s 2026 Senate reelection bid, as Paxton’s grassroots popularity and Trump-aligned rhetoric resonated with the party’s base.
Timing and Urgency: The House acted just days before the end of the 2023 legislative session, raising questions about whether the rapid impeachment process was driven by a desire to neutralize Paxton before he could consolidate power. Paxton’s legal victories—including his acquittal in the Senate and the DOJ’s decision not to prosecute him federally—later bolstered his political standing, positioning him as a formidable Cornyn challenger.
Primary Retribution: After the impeachment, Paxton and his allies (backed by wealthy donors like Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks) targeted pro-impeachment House Republicans in the 2024 primaries, unseating several incumbents. This demonstrated the impeachment’s role in an ongoing power struggle within the GOP.

Plausibility of Each Explanation

Severity of Charges: The evidence against Paxton was substantial and bipartisan, making it a legitimate basis for impeachment. The House investigation revealed systemic abuses of power that warranted scrutiny under any circumstances.
Political Landscape: The impeachment’s timing, rapid pace, and aftermath suggest it was also a strategic move by establishment Republicans to weaken a rising rival. Paxton’s threat to Cornyn’s Senate seat and his alignment with Trump’s base made him a political liability for the GOP’s traditional leadership.

Conclusion

While the severity of the charges provided a credible justification for impeachment, the political landscape was likely the catalyst for the House’s urgency. The impeachment occurred amid a broader GOP civil war, with establishment figures seeking to curb Paxton’s influence ahead of critical elections. The Senate’s acquittal, driven by Paxton’s allies, further highlights the factional divide. In this context, the impeachment served both ethical and political ends: addressing misconduct while attempting to reshape the Texas GOP’s future.

-PJ

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