The “best” the U.S. could hope for is U.S. companies moving overseas production from China to other countries where we presently have a trade surplus but unfortunately that is not where the largest available labor pools are; meaning those countries cannot replace China when it comes to labor, and most of the countries that could make up (altogether) jobs pulled from China are countries we already have a trade deficit with, or are countries that cannot now support or create the industrial expansion needed (like in Africa).
In sum, unless we are willing to break Americans appetite for consumption, turning Americans into producers and savers, not spenders (which seems politically infeasible) it is doubtful the U.S. can be more of an exporter and less of an importer. Walling off America as not much of an exporter but just near totally “self sufficient”, will just as quickly put America into a depression as anything else. A dope addict does not quit the addiction without a painful withdrawal. And getting through withdrawl is only the beginning, not the end. of a long recovery. Unfortunately spend, spend, spend federal governments, and federal reserve policies have only kept up Americans addictions for consumption and avoidance of saving. Maybe humpty dumpty has fallen and cannot be put back together.
Maybe humpty dumpty has fallen and cannot be put back together.
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The stock, bond, and treasury markets are looking like they may follow Humpty Dumpty