https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3856302849/?ref_=bo_hm_rd
Variety and Deadline Hollywood estimate the film budget at $240-$270 million. That might not include advertising.
Box Office General Rule - 50% to theaters, 50% to film producer.
$500 million to break even could be a little low.
I believe the cost of the movie, with its extensive reshoots, was north of $300 million, and with marketing, the total costs was north of $350 million. And the 50% to the producers rule is only for domestic box office. In China the number is 25%-35%. Disney getting 40% of the foreign box office is generous.
$71.3 million Domestic Box Office X 50% + $91.3 million Foreign Box Office x 40%= $31.57 Million + $36.52 Million = $68.09 Million.
So, as of today, Disney is more than $200 million in the hole, even using their numbers, and not including marketing, and not considering the cost of the money that has been tied up for years. Which makes the real loss close to, if not over, $300 million.