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To: AnotherUnixGeek
The RNC, as usual, didn’t. Redistricting by Crawford will probably cost the GOP the House in 2026...

Probably not.

First, the new state Supreme Court has to rule the existing district maps as unconstitutional and order a new map to be drawn up.

Then the GOP can sue, appealing to the federal district court arguing that the ruling to redraw the district map mid-decade is partisan, extreme, and unnecessary. The district court will likely side with the state Supreme Court. Then the GOP will appeal to the 7th Circuit Court. That will take more time.

The 7th circuit is overseen by Justice Amy Coney Barrett and is made up of 6 judges appointed by Republicans (4 by Trump, 1 by G. W. Bush, 1 by Reagan) and 5 appointed by Biden.

It's possible that the 7th circuit takes its time to hear the case; it's possible that the 7th rules that the existing map is acceptable and that no mid-decade redistricting is necessary; it's possible that the 7th circuit rules that the map is unconstitutional and remands it back to the legislature; and it's possible that the 7th accepts the map. If the gerrymandering is really bad, option 2 is the most likely outcome.

Second, Wisconsin then has to pass a new district map. Republicans have a 54-45 majority in the Wisconsin State Assembly. Republicans also have a 18-15 majority in the Wisconsin State Senate. Republicans can significantly delay the process of drawing the maps before they are even sent to the governor for his signature. The Republicans can use procedural tactics to delay the completion of the maps.

This will delay the effective date of the map and will likely push the existing map into the 2026 mid-term elections, keeping the districts as they currently are. That means that any new redistricted map won't take effect until the 2028 election, if at all.

The Democrats are counting on the 2-seat pickup in Wisconsin to give them control of the House in 2026, but this assumes that Republicans don't make any additional gains in 2026 that make the Wisconsin steal moot. If President Trump's policies show significant economic improvement going into the latter half of 2026, Democrats might become even more shrill and aggressive out of desperation, pushing more voters to the right and the GOP.

My hunch prediction: Republicans will pick up more seats in the House in 2026 to make the redistricting in Wisconsin irrelevant, despite a still-narrow majority. If the margin of victory is large enough, Democrats may abandon their redistricting after the 7th circuit remands it back to the Republican-controlled legislature.

-PJ

64 posted on 04/01/2025 8:02:44 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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To: Political Junkie Too

Good observations here.


80 posted on 04/01/2025 8:49:31 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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