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To: Owen

Your projections are extremely bullish.

That said, $75 billion is going into the Plaquemines export terminal alone. So it’s fair to say your estimates of the market aren’t universally accepted.


40 posted on 03/06/2025 11:26:03 AM PST by Miami Rebel (pro-)
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To: Miami Rebel

Cryocooling is not cheap.

The numbers are from the energy bible of BP. 13B cubic meters of natgas in LNG form last year.

The AI says Plaquemines will have eventual capacity for 27 Mtpa. Million tons per annum. The conversion is 1 million tons of LNG is 1 billion cubic meters of gas. So the entire facility dedicated only to Germany and nothing to other customers who are already paying for shipments today could cover the 16 Bcm German loss of consumption since 2021.

My read is US consumption and sheer capacity to produce more than the 1.1 Tcm/yr in place now will leave these LNG terminals substantially under used.

As for $70+ billion invested, at. . . 6%? With 2% inflation? Gonna be hard to achieve even a 20 yr payback.


41 posted on 03/06/2025 11:57:16 AM PST by Owen
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