It’s like Trumps first term and what he did never happened. They are saying what they hope happens not what history suggests will happen.
Well, the situation in Trump’s 1st term was much different. A little thing called the COVID shutdowns. :-(
Here’s a link to an interactive chart of the actual history. Please note the period of Trump’s term pre-COVID.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg