I asked grok3 and AI super searcher if the US was getting ready to send US troops into Mexico and here is what I got:
Key Points
Research suggests the US is preparing for possible military action against Mexican cartels inside Mexico, but it's unclear if they're imminently ready to start a war.
The evidence leans toward increased surveillance, designating cartels as terrorists, and potential future strikes, indicating readiness in capability but not necessarily immediate action.
There is controversy, as Mexico opposes such actions, viewing them as a breach of sovereignty, which could strain bilateral relations.
Background
The US has been grappling with the impact of Mexican drug cartels, particularly due to the fentanyl crisis and border security concerns. President Donald Trump, in office as of January 2025, has emphasized a tough stance on cartels, including labeling them as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) to potentially justify military action.
Recent Developments Recent reports indicate the US is ramping up surveillance of Mexican cartels, with drone flights over Mexico and increased intelligence gathering, as stated by Air Force General Gregory Guillot on February 13, 2025 (US military ramping up surveillance of Mexican cartels, general says | Reuters). On January 20, 2025, Trump signed an executive order initiating the process to designate certain cartels as FTOs, which could provide legal backing for military operations (Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists – The White House).
US officials have hinted at future strikes, with a DEA agent noting on February 21, 2025, that cartels are worried about the possibility of being "vaporized" by US military action (U.S. official says drone flights over Mexico may signal future strikes | LA Times).
Unexpected Detail While the focus has been on US actions, an unexpected aspect is Mexico's response, with President Claudia Sheinbaum reinforcing the northern border with 10,000 National Guard members on February 4, 2025, as part of an agreement to delay US tariffs, showing a cooperative yet sovereign stance (In pictures: Mexican troops deployed to border with US - February 5, 2025 | Reuters).
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[12/27]A member of the Mexican National Guard patrols the border wall between Mexico and the U.S. on the outskirts of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, February 6. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez
CIUDAD JUAREZ, MEXICO Survey Note:
Detailed Analysis of US Readiness for Military Action Against Mexican Cartels Inside Mexico This note provides a comprehensive analysis of whether the United States is ready to start a war against Mexican cartels inside Mexico, based on extensive research conducted as of March 2, 2025. The investigation involved multiple searches across various news sources and official reports, focusing on recent developments and historical context, given the current date and political landscape under President Donald Trump.
Research Methodology
The analysis began by identifying the context of US-Mexico relations regarding drug cartels, particularly the fentanyl crisis and border security. Searches were conducted using queries such as "US military action against Mexican cartels in 2025," "Trump's plan for military action against Mexican cartels," and "US government statement on military action against Mexican cartels," targeting both general web results and specific US and Mexican news outlets like Reuters, The Guardian, and The New York Times. The time frame was set to recent reports, given the current date, to ensure relevance.
Findings on US Preparations Initial searches revealed extensive coverage of US preparations for potential military action. On February 13, 2025, Reuters reported that the US military is increasing its airborne surveillance of Mexican drug cartels to collect intelligence, as stated by Air Force General Gregory Guillot, head of US Northern Command (US military ramping up surveillance of Mexican cartels, general says | Reuters). This includes intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to counter cartel activities driving illegal migration.
On January 20, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14157, initiating the process to designate certain international cartels, particularly Mexican ones, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) or Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs), as detailed on the White House website (Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists – The White House). This order highlights cartels as a national security threat, with activities encompassing convergence with foreign actors and operating as quasi-governmental entities in parts of Mexico. The order requires the Secretary of State and other officials to make recommendations within 14 days, suggesting a rapid move towards formal designation.
Further, on February 21, 2025, the LA Times reported that a DEA agent, Todd Zimmerman, stated that drone flights over Mexico, while currently unarmed, may signal future strikes, with cartels aware of the potential for US military action (U.S. official says drone flights over Mexico may signal future strikes | LA Times). This indicates a readiness in terms of capability, with the US military and intelligence community preparing for possible direct action.
Lack of Confirmed Military Action Despite these preparations, no evidence was found of the US having started military operations inside Mexico as of March 2, 2025. Searches on platforms like Reuters and The Guardian, such as "US military operations in Mexico 2025 site:reuters.com," returned results focused on surveillance and planning rather than active combat. For instance, a Reuters article from January 22, 2025, mentioned sending 1,500 additional troops to the border, but these were stationed at the border, not inside Mexico (US military to send additional 1,500 troops to border | Reuters).
Mexican Response and Controversy
Mexico's response has been notably oppositional, with President Claudia Sheinbaum rejecting the FTO designation on January 20, 2025, emphasizing sovereignty and coordination, as reported by AP News (Mexico defends sovereignty as US seeks to label cartels as terrorists | AP News). On February 5, 2025, Reuters covered Mexico deploying 10,000 National Guard members to the northern border to prevent drug trafficking, following an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs, indicating a cooperative yet independent approach (In pictures: Mexican troops deployed to border with US - February 5, 2025 | Reuters). This stance highlights the controversy, as military action inside Mexico could be seen as a breach of sovereignty, potentially straining bilateral relations.
Contextual Factors
The US's focus on cartels is driven by the fentanyl crisis, with overdose deaths surpassing 100,000 annually since 2021, as noted in a Heritage Foundation report from January 26, 2025 (How the President Can Use the U.S. Military to Confront the Catastrophic Threat at the Border with Mexico | The Heritage Foundation). Trump's rhetoric, including statements from his inauguration and campaign promises, suggests a willingness to use military force, with experts warning of potential retaliatory strikes by cartels, as discussed in an Atlantic Council article from January 14, 2025 (US intervention against Mexican cartels carries major risks. Here's how to mitigate them. | Atlantic Council).
Table:
Summary of Key Searches and Findings US military action against Mexican cartels in 2 Feb 2025 Increased surveillance, FTO designation, potential future strikes
Trump's plan for military action against cartels Jan-Feb 2025 Executive order for FTO designation, hints at military action US government statement on military action Jan-Feb 2025 No specific statements, focus on preparation and surveillance US military operations in Mexico 2025 Feb 2025 No active operations, focus on border deployment and drone flights Trump's first day executive orders 2025 Jan 2025 Included order for FTO designation, no direct military action
Conclusion
Based on the extensive research, it is concluded that the US is preparing for the possibility of military action against Mexican cartels inside Mexico, with increased surveillance, FTO designation, and potential future strikes indicating readiness in capability. However, there is no evidence of imminent war or active military operations as of March 2, 2025. The controversy with Mexico, particularly over sovereignty, suggests that any such action would face significant diplomatic challenges. The unexpected detail is Mexico's proactive deployment of troops to the border, showing a cooperative yet sovereign response to US pressure.