Thanks for the new Q thread and for everything you do it's all very much appreciated.
Here's my latest on yesterdays fiasco:
Conclusion of the question asked to Grok3: Did Z make a minerals deal with any other country?: Below the answer:
Based on the available data, Zelensky has not made a minerals deal with any country besides the US as of March 1, 2025.
Negotiations with the US are the only ones with a documented framework, though still incomplete. Claims about the UK or other nations lack confirmation and seem to stem from "rumor" rather than fact. If new developments have occurred post-February 28, 2025, they're not yet reflected in accessible records.
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Above are the results of a grok3 look into weather or not Zelensky has made a deal with any other country on minerals besides the US. ............................ below is my take on the situation:
Seems there are no deals that have been acknowledged although grok 3 does acknowledge rumors of deals.
If there are rumors of deals they are likely with the UK or China.
One of the rumors was that Z did make a deal with the UK but it's top secret and few know about it.Who knows?
I can't find any acknowledgment of that.
If that is actually true and not rumor it would go a long way to explain what happened yesterday. Could be why Z thinks he has secret leverage on minerals with the UK/China as his latest target since this guy is a slug,criminal and grifter IMHO.
Even without a minerals deal with anyone Z thinks he is in the cat-bird seat. He knows that Ukraine has trillions,hard to say how much,of rare earth. Unfortunately for him Russia seems to be occupying some of the areas where the rare earth is located.
Z needs the Russians to leave. This alone could light a fire under his ass to get someone bigger and better than Russia to get them out of his country. Good luck with that one.
Z knows that if he does not get security,real, written, and acknowledged security, from the US, his minerals deal is worthless as far as Ukraine is concerned.
Z knows that several countries with the money to mine the minerals, which is key since they are not easy to access, are basically lined up to make agreements.
Zelensky is so screwed up he has left a war with Russia ongoing and expects someone else to get rid of the Russians in his country!Duhhhh... who would that be?
The only ones even remotely capable of that would be China or the US. I doubt China would be up for that especially since they may use the chaos in Ukraine to further drive Taiwan a bit more crazy.
Z is desperate and anything is possible.
It's hard to imagine Z signs with the US without a security agreement tied to the minerals deal it's not in his interest. Also, he's barely in power as things are since he is using the war to keep from having an election which he will surely lose if he even runs.
For some unknown reason he thinks he can fool the U.S. to get Russia to leave the occupied areas they now hold in the Ukraine. I doubt will happen. He may be snorting a bit too much.
Anyway you cut it, absent the minerals, we never should have had anything to do with Ukraine/Zelensky and should have kicked the CIA out in 2014 before they created all the chaos that likely started all this.
Ukraine always been a cess pool and one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Little has changed except its getting worse under Z.
I'm pretty sure Trump thought he could get a minerals deal signed by Z and then dump him. This does not seem likely now. But, I never underestimate Trump. He's always one step ahead isn't he.!!And always playing chess with his fav. partner:
Seems there may be a bit of a glitch in the rear earth quest.
It's here:
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/2/ukraine-rare-earths-potential-relies-on-soviet-assessments-may-not-be-viable-87318842
The rare earth may be a bit too "rare".
Seems it may be really hard to get to,not viable financially,doesn't even exist,or has so much Ukrainan corruption to get through that its not worth the trouble.
Add in that only China,Russia and the US have the ability to even come up with the bucks,equipment,ability in safety and a dozen other reasons why its all not what its set out to be.
Leave it to cat herd right here on FR to get to the real truth of the situation.!
So we are at the point of the bigger question:
Did Zelensky con everyone into thinking that there were trillions of rare earth minerals in Ukraine and forget to mention a few key issues like:
1. Much of the rare earth if it exists is now in the hands of Russian occupied territory due to the war.
2. If the rare earth is there it could be so hard to get its not financially viable.
3.The evidence of it being there is provided by Russia itself that did research many years ago,is it accurate?no one knows.
4. The Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world and the payoffs necessary in each area to get access to mine these minerals could be quite expensive due to corrupt officials all over the country.
5.Its gonna take millions if not billions to go after these minerals without truly knowing if they are there or what the cost will be to mine them.
I could go on but its getting apparent a zelensky con may be what we are talking about here. Zelensky is the ultimate conman,actor,fake president and all round bad guy. Hes in a do or die situation since he cant get re-elected with super low numbers from making martial law in Ukraine to avoid an election he would surely have lost. Add in he's hated by much of the world. He has few places to go. And, he's likely a criminal playing a final con/act while he's still in office,and you have a made of TV show hard to duplicate.
Here is more from the link above:
Ukraine is relying on a Soviet-era assessment of difficult-to-access rare earths deposits, according to industry experts and a geological record obtained by S&P Global Commodity Insights, as the country prepares to offer minerals to the US in exchange for military assistance.
(sounds like a con already--have us begging for the rights to non-existent minerals?)
US Vice President JD Vance will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Feb. 14 at the Munich Security Conference to discuss an end to a three-year war that began when Russia invaded Ukraine. (that happened and Z was nasty to him Marco and the President) But Zelenskyy's rare earths offer is based on exploration activities that took place largely between the 1960s and 1980s, when the Soviet state was actively mapping the area, industry experts said.
The deposits would be difficult to develop. Some are stuck behind battle lines or, in the case of the geological record for one of the sites, require advanced processing technology and a stable energy grid to extract. (always follow the money)And the valuation of the deposits is based on decades-old data: No sources contacted by Commodity Insights were aware of any commercial exploration or assessment of those deposits in the post-Soviet period.
"Unfortunately, there is no modern assessment" of rare earth reserves in Ukraine, Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, told Commodity Insights in an email. "And there is still restriction to make this information public."(now I wonder why that would be)
The Ukrainian Geological Survey is the government agency responsible for mineral development.
Deal or no deal
US President Donald Trump said Ukraine must guarantee its continued military aid from the US with "rare earths and other things," adding Feb. 10 that he wants $500 billion worth of rare earths.(putting a number on it is a wise Trumpian move that makes sure we get our money back)
Zelenskyy seems ready to make a deal.(does he already have a better deal?Is he leery about dealing with Trump who wont be fooled or hustled)
The Ukrainian president described the country's rare earths deposits as "priceless"(are these the words of the ultimate conman?) during a Feb. 7 interview with Reuters, adding that "Americans helped the most, and therefore the Americans should earn the most" in rebuilding Ukraine. ( sounds like pure BS to a man that disrespects all of our leaders)
Out of six rare earth deposits in Ukraine, only the Novopoltavske field in the Zaporizhzhia region has proven reserves with the license open for nomination. The large phosphate and rare earth deposit requires a $300 million investment, according to "Ukraine: Mining Investment Opportunities," a report by the Ukrainian Geological Survey and the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine.
The complex was first discovered in 1970 by Soviet geologists and was tested during preliminary and detailed exploration from 1978 to 1991, according to a geological record from the State Geologic and Subsoil Survey of Ukraine. The Novopoltavske deposit was found to contain a combination of phosphate ores, rare earth compounds and niobium ores, among other elements, under "relatively difficult" hydro-geological and mining conditions.(Is that code for good luck getting these minerals out of the earth?)
"On the rare earth elements classification, it's the most complex of compounds to process and recover. Only China, the US and Russia have proven to commercially recover these," Federico Gay, a principal lithium analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said in an email after reviewing the geological record document.
The rare earths comprise the 15 elements forming the lanthanide series as well as two transition metals, scandium and yttrium.
Costly to extract
Exploration efforts were abandoned after a 13-year assessment process, and no attempts have been made to develop the Novopoltavske deposit since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, according to experts.
Ukraine's deposits of rare earth elements might not be profitable to extract.
"To my knowledge, there are no economically viable rare earth deposits in Ukraine," said Tony Mariano, an independent geologist consultant with expertise in rare earths exploration. "I have evaluated clay deposits in Ukraine thought to have potential for rare earths but found them not to be viable. This doesn't mean there aren't any, only that further exploration and evaluation needs to be done."
Other known rare earth deposits in Ukraine include the Azovske and Mazurivske deposits in the Donetsk region. Both deposits have fallen under the territorial control of the Russian Federation, based on S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest maps of Russian advances in Ukraine.
Russia's invasion in February 2022 stymied any recent attempts to further explore the region, and no private entity assessed the deposits during earlier, more peaceful times.
Additionally, information about deposits of some rare earth elements such as scandium is classified under the Resolution of the State Security Service of Ukraine from Dec. 23, 2020, due to the war.
"This secrecy is absurd, since the main deposits were discovered before 1991, and geological reports were transmitted to Moscow. So, Russia knows about our resources and reserves as much as we do," Hanna Liventseva, former chair for the Ukrainian Association of Geologists, said in an email.
Ukraine produces iron ore, coal and uranium, but Market Intelligence data does not show any reserves of rare earths, and Ukraine is not listed on the US Geological Survey's list of countries with meaningful rare earths reserves.
"I am not aware of any significant rare earth assets or reserves in Ukraine. This is just another breathless fantasy that we will magically solve our critical mineral constraints through a country at war. The closest analogy for me is the very similar hyperbole about the trillions of dollars of minerals sitting under Afghanistan," said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
"Just like the latest hyperbole, I imagine it too will fade away once people realize that mining and processing minerals is difficult, requires a great deal of infrastructure, is time-consuming and often not economically viable, and takes significant expertise," Bazilian added.