There will be a minerals deal soon and a ceasefire by Easter.
Maybe, unless the Europeans actually step up with military and economic aid. Collectively they have many times Russia's GDP and their arms industries are not totally incapable. In fact, US weapons use many components bought from Europe or made under license, like the thermal sights for M1s that are licensed from Thales.
Everyone should be aware that the purpose of the US negotiations, besides the monetary side, is to enmesh the US so deeply into Ukraine's infrastructure that Russia cannot attack it without risking a confrontation with the US. It's a clever backdoor security guarantee that allows Putin to "declare victory" with no NATO (for the moment).