Bearing in mind that early reports are usually wrong, and sitting in my FR ‘expert’ arm chair, I’ll offer the following:
Rate of descent on final approach was (early) reported to be 1100 feet per minute and KIAS (knots indicated air speed) less than 130 knots. This is arguably too fast of a descent on approach (should be ~500 fpm or less). Don’t know the crosswind component so can’t comment on the proper airspeed, plus I was never typed in ANY jet, so experts (for real) can point to a proper airspeed. Yet the <130 KIAS seems quite slow.
It looked like the pilot did have the right wing dropped (normal flying behavior) to counter drift from the crosswind, but higher airspeed would have helped reduce the required roll and rudder to ‘crab’ onto the centerline of the runway.
Couple that roll ° plus low airspeed plus high rate of descent adds up to a HARD touchdown on the right gear *perhaps* leading to structural failure or at least blown tires. Both would yaw the plane to the right. *IF* the right wing hit the earth the plane is going to ground loop in a clockwise manner. At some point the wing detached from the fuselage. My obeervation from my FR arm chair looking at the fuselage is that the wing came off ‘cleanly’ as if the attachment points failed/bolts sheared. The CRJ (per the internet) only carries fuel in the wings, so the fire was from the fuel leaking from the right wing. Per se the plane’s fuselage did not erupt in flames, only the fuel from the wing(s).
Also PRESUMING the plane landed that hard, some of the injuries may have occurred right then.
My FR armchair opinion is that the pilot blew the approach yet proceeded to attempt the landing due to get-there-itis. I have been there and saved a landing, but by the time I finished engine shutdown, I knew I did a stupid thing.
Net: pilot error all the way.
Now getting out of my armchair to go pee 😉
“Net: pilot error all the way.”
Stay in that arm chair. Why would the pilot descend too fast or deviate from a normal glide path, factoring in winds. Wouldn’t the controller have mentioned his rapid descent rate?
That looks like a very reasonable analysis.
Thanks.