[TexasGator]

Armstrong has predicted 15 of the last 2 crises.

[Rockingham]

Economic fundamentals are better understood and easier for most to understand than the fundamentals of banking and finance. My knowledge of the latter is thin, but I know enough to recognize when the "bubble economics" of excessive credit puts the financial system and larger economy at risk. When that happens, regulators and markets are mostly fooled but signs of strain start to appear in the real economy.

The movie The Big Short about the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis provides an entertaining and essentially accurate account of how a group of hedge fund contrarians made a killing. As it happens, the now wealthy operators profiled in that movie recently shut down their short seller hedge fund. Why? They have gone long because they see the US and global economies as strong enough to make even them bullish.