My personal take...
After the initial shake-out, more voices calling for temperance rose to the surface.
While it is entirely possible that a more efficient model could lead to weakening demand for Nvidia’s chips, it is far from a guarantee. In fact, it could have the opposite effect: It could lead to increased demand. There is a concept in economics dubbed the Jevons Paradox that may apply here — that is, increased efficiency in a market leads to more demand, not less.
If DeepSeek’s model leads to AI models in general taking a leap forward in efficiency, I believe that AI applications will become more useful and ubiquitous, and thus demand will increase. We will see how this pans out, but the initial panic has subsided, and today saw Nvidia’s stock recover somewhat.
Yes, I saw that too, thanks. The Tech Space is always crackling with energy, and much of it is reciprocal.
New technology disrupts but that is how new growth curves are created. Sometimes disruptive technologies like AI get disrupted because that’s where the focus of innovation is. Some like Apple have often done to themselves because they are already thinking at least one generation ahead. The timing may be a surprise but as one who is long on NVDA. I will be interested in how they respond over the next few quarters.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
I think Deep Six is mainly a dog and pony show.
I agree with your assessment.
High tide raises all boats.
Nothing is going to surpass Nvidia, TSMC for the time being.
But not everybody needs a Cadillac.