The proximate cause is the collapse of Lebanese Hezbollah, smashed by Israel. Assads perennial problem has been manpower, as Syria is majority Sunni. Iran has been providing Shiite troops recruited by its puppet Hezbollah, as a major part of the Syrian governments infantry. It seems that last week all or most Hezbollah troops just went home, apparently the result of a collapse in morale, leaving the frontline unmanned or undermanned.
It was the Iranian-provided infantry that were critical, not RuAF assets.
Russian forces in Syria were just some specialist and support formations. Without the manpower to hold the front all the remaining Syrian forces can do is retreat. You cant hold the line with just airstrikes.
Very plausible analysis.
Yet, it would seem the “rebels” owe some thanks to Israel, but would their government, if they replaced Assad, be greatful?? NOT ONE BIT. The “rebels” are` as much Islamists as the Mullahs in Tehran or any of the Islamic terrorist groups.
Oct 7 was a massive miscalculation by Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran that has created a chain of events that are significantly changing the region.
“Russia has informed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that moving forward, their Intervention and Support for the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) against the Rebel Offensives now in the North, East, and South of the Country will be Limited.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1865086346907291969