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I think you are correct, but I also call it a fad, riddled with mental illness & attention seeking moms. It’s spread so quickly with no rhyme or reason. In the end it is beyond mind blowing & sick that adults condone this happening to children.

It’s spread so quickly with no rhyme or reason.

It has only intensified recently. Fractions became inches, inches have became a foot and a foot might well become a yard if left unchecked. It's origins is decades old.

Society in Transition: A History of the Trans Movement

There have always been individuals who challenged gendered social norms. But Western social, medical, and political recognition of people who cross the boundaries of gender only truly began in the 20th century. The stories of Trans Scripts are interwoven into this history—a history that is still being written and re-defined today.
One of the earliest attempts to medically define the trans experience came in the early 20th century with the research of Berlin-based physician/sexologist Magnus Hirschfeld. In 1919, Hirschfeld published The Transvestites, outlining his research and treatments for transgender people—then referred to as transvestites. The reason is the desire for the destruction of norms so that debauchery and perversion is the norm and so that practitioners will face no punishment.

trans movement started

JMO, YMMV

The increase in girls to boys is up 500% in some areas, while boys to girls stays about the same. Hysteria. Social contagion. Etc. Much like the crying contagions or dancing contagions years ago. (People died dancing due to exhaustion!)

Of course those incidents were confined to a school or village. Now with the internet it is global. Although it usually affects middle-class white girls. I think it is somehow related to them wanting to be special, stand out, but also be part of a group and belonging. Most of the girls (80% plus) have underlying mental health issues including on the spectrum for autism, anxiety (hmm - worrying about being murdered), OCD, etc.

Farther back there were folks that thought they were made of glass and would break if moved. Some French king even made his servants place him in a straw-filled box to move him from his bed to the chamber pot.