At 9 PM I’ll look at Kamala‘s percentage of votes in the early closing times states of Vermont, Indiana, ohio, Kentucky … And compare it to the percentage that Joe Biden got in in 2020. If Kamala is doing worse in those states than Biden did then Biden did then Trump will likely win.
I did it in 2016 comparing Hillary percentage versus Obama 2012, and I knew by 9 o’clock that Trump would likely win.
Not a bad strategy: VT Biden won 66% to 30% 242k vs 113k - now that's a Dem state. In Kentucky is was just about flipped with Trump at 62% v 36% Trump had 1.3m v 772k. I think the real key indicator is doing that in the Dem Blue cities - Pittsburgh and Philly are supposed to be early returns, that will predict the outcome.
Excellent approach.