Colorado has Democrats only leading by two points in early voting which by the Pew model is Trump +6.
All the polls (old and new) show Harris leading by double digits.
That is a twenty point difference—crazy stuff.
Silver’s discussion of the weirdness that has Republicans voting early in Colorado could explain that.
He also said Republicans like to vote early in California.
While the raw numbers in CA show a million vote Democratic lead that is based on mail in voting which is about a million vote shortfall to where Harris should be.
Maryland (and also my home state of CT + neighboring RI) has the opposite issue—a +20 or higher Democratic blowout based on early voting.
The ONLY way Harris “wins : is through massive civil war causing fraud, period. She needs a huge turnout from her base, and it is not there. Simple numbers.