Posted on 10/24/2024 5:41:01 AM PDT by Red Badger
Local predators will LOVE the targets sitting immobilized for 10 minutes or more.
When you can partially fill your gasoline tank in under 3-5 minutes and scoot [and you're probably not on empty], you're less of a target.
If you're charging an electric vehicle, it's probably because you NEED to.
Again, real target-y. No thanks.
A lot of these e-vehicle lovers are 40th parallel people - they live below the 40th parallel, and don't have to worry much about the cold killing their cars. Good for them.
[[ A lot of these e-vehicle lovers are 40th parallel people - they live below the 40th parallel, and don’t have to worry much about the cold killing their cars. Good for them.]]
They can sweat and smell up their shiny new ev’s because they can’t run air conditioner while driving long distances then lol
With full deference to the “I’ve heard this old yarn before” sentiment, I have a couple of points:
(1) This isn’t coming from a startup operation off a grad student’s research project: it’s Samsung. They obviously believe in what they’re doing and have the resources to push this across the finish line. Whether that line is a profitable point is what remains to be seen.
(2) My expectation is that their announcement is coming now simply because now that samples are being passed around, they can’t really hide what they’re doing any longer. Investors would want to know what they’re doing, too.
(3) While on that point: Samsung is a publicly traded company, so they really can’t make outlandish claims that can’t be backed up (or at least approached).
I find this intriguing, too, but with my own questions:
(a) Can they provide a 600-mile solution without exacerbating the weight issues with existing EV battery tech?
(b) Can they show that their SS batteries avoid the fire hazard inherent to the non-SS tech employed today? (that’s supposed to be true for solid state solutions)
(c) I agree with you: weather considerations are going to be big.
(d) The discussion about a ‘20 year life’ _should_ be the result of recharge cycle estimations... but yes, real world scenarios need to be checked out.
(e) The cost increase may be a factor, but I’d do the math to balance that against the convenience of never having to find and use a gas station again. Also, a vehicle with such a battery system might actually be relevant on the used car market... I wouldn’t touch a used EV today under any circumstances.
If all those boxes are checked... then they really do have something big: heck, while charging from your house is obviously the most convenient way to go, a 500+ mile range should be good enough for 98% of most people’s driving needs. Even on the road, a ~10 minute recharge is fine.
Heck, I have no vehicle with a range longer than 400 miles and beyond the 5 minute gas fill-up, I usually add 5+ minutes to find a gas station (not that it would be easier to find a charging station, but all that to say “it’s comparable”. Even at a 20% degradation off the 600 mile claim, that still beats everything I have today with ICE power.
In other words... if Samsung meets or comes close to those claims... I’d have to consider it.
“A 9-minute charge time to reach 80% capacity on a 600 mile range battery?”
The amps to do that must be huge - tens of thousands. Wish they gave enough data so we could figure it out.
Man, that’s a BIG BATTERY!
“Challenges of scaling production and cost remain”
indeed ... the EXACT same stumbling blocks of EVERY new magic battery technology touted for the last 50 years ... followed by “more money is needed for research and development” ...
turns out though, after 50 years, LIon and lead/acid are STILL pretty much the only high-capacity battery technologies in common usage ...
600 miles in a model S sized EV would need ,150kWh. 80% of that is 120kWh, a 9 min charge is 6.6C so 120x6.6 is 799kw for 9 min. The version 4 of the NACS standard plug can do 1000V at 1000amps max or 1000kw so yeah the plug and the standard support a 6.6X rate charge on a battery that size. You would need a V4 supercharger with a Tesla megapack behind it so the grid doesn’t see 800kw rates. You charge the megapack using 480V triple phase commercial building power at say 162kw 24/7 that fills said megapack to it’s rated capacity of 3900kWh. You could have four superchargers running off one megapack that’s only 0.75C for the megapack and the grid still only sees 162kw which is 194amps on each phase of that 480V3P. Each megapack holds 32 charges for a 600 mile Tesla S and would replenish 1.35 charges an hour so with a full megapack you get 65 charges per day since you can replenish what you lost as you discharge the megapack. That’s a dumb way to use a megapack since it can take much more than 3/4 of a C rate.
Typical pad transformers are 750kva 480/3p
Here’s a typical one it’s like 9 grand referb.
750kva from a 12,000V triple phase power line is 22.2 amps on each phase from the pole hardly a huge load post substation grid distribution lines are rated in the thousands of amps each with three on each pole.
With a single 750kva supply to a megapack you get 32 charges from the pack plus 150 more from the supply per 24 hour period. Split between 4 stalls is 45 charges per stall per day. If you had 9 min charges that’s 6 hours of back to back charges at each of the four stalls. So say 3 hour rush in the morning and 3 hour rush in the evening with back to back continuous use. If each stall had a megapack it quadrupole the number and you don’t have enough hours in the day to charge with 9min charges even at back to back 24/7 charges the packs are too big at that point. A megapack is stored in a 20 foot shipping container sized box which is smaller than the underground tank size of a typical gasoline pump station which would have four or more of those. One for 87,90,93 and diesel at least.
So yeah you could have 9 min charges with standards and equipment available today that would fit under the space of the four spots above then charging. You can bury the 3 megapacks and the three 750kva transformers for 22 hours of back to back 9 min charges on four stalls.
Scale up or down from there. Two packs and four stalls is 11 hours of back to back charges. Then realise that virtually no one drives 600 miles regularly. Twice per year for over 400 miles in a day is the American norm. With daily distance under 37 miles as the norm.
A model 3 sized 5 passenger car needs 64 kWh to go 360 miles so double the above numbers of charges per day available you run out of hours not capacity of electrons with one megapack and normal sized EVs not 600 mile edge case fringe use.
The economics make a sokid case too. A megapack is 1.2 million, the 750kva is 8 grand so a rounding error. Supercharger stalls are 150,000 each and each has two plugs so 300,000.capex is then 1.5 million.
Going rate for nontesla cars at superchargers is 43cents per kWh retail. Charging over a 6 hour rush back to back. Three morning three night and no other charges would give a gross rev of $7430 per day or 2.7 million per year. Wholesale power is 3 cents per kWh so your power costs are $189,000 per year out of your gross rev. Still the payback period is under 1 year. The megapack is only doing less than a 1C rate hard even stressing it at less than once discharge cycle per day you are putting in while taking out with dips to only half empty at peak hours. LFP cells doing less than 1C to 50% depth of discharge can do 20000-30000 cyckes. Note the scales logarithmic on the left. A full year is only 365 half DOD cycles those megapacks will calender age out first at 15 years. You can see from the economics why EVs are a huge money maker and Elon vis Tesla is the richest man on earth those superchargers are literally money machines.
Still 43 cents per kWh is cheaper than 93 per mile in a model 3 Vs S60 sized ice turbo.
Model 3 uses 180wh per mile that’s 5.5 miles per kWh or 7.3 cents per mile if charged at 43 cents per kWh.
S60 Volvo has to burn 93 which is $3.28 right now via gasbuddy at 28 mpg that’s 11.8 cents per mile so superchargers is still cheaper by 33% and that’s using expensive retail superchargers. At home we get power for 8 cents per kWh so home charging the model 3 is 1.45 cents per mile a factor of 10 cheaper then 93 octane.
Add in the fact that the Model 3 costs less per month in lease vs what the S60 cost per month means from mile one the Tesla was less in capital AND operating costs it’s a win win. Plus FSD forehand free driving and auto follow in traffoc. I will never but an ICE car again. Truck yes for truck thinks and truck things only but for commuting and city to city travel nope Tesla every day all day. It’s money in my bank account ten times less per mile vs the S60 that just sits there for the wife to take to the store if I’m out of town or she is impatient to let me get home and us go in the Tesla.
https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-iron-phosphate-lifepo4/
120kWh to take a model S sized vehicle from 0 to 80% if it had 600 miles of range.
Tesla S use 250 watt hours per mile so 600 miles is a 150kWh sized pack. 80% of that is 120kWh.
V4 supercharger standard maxed out in testing for it’s international certs at 1000 volts and 1000amps through the stock NACS plug my buddy Shaun is an engineer with Tesla Austin. They got their cert so they passed the safety tests. 1000V and 100amps is 1000kw
120kWh in 9 min is 6.66C so you need 792kw over 9min. Using the 800V standard pack voltage that all the majors are using now KIA Hyundai,Benz, BMW, VW...You then need 990 amps just under the limit of the latest V4 standards. There is your answer. Tesla also has the megacharger standard grow Cybertruck and TeslaSemi that’s 1000v and 3000amps but it’s liquid cooled megastandard plugs not passive cooled NACS plugs. 1 megawatt for NACS and 3 megawatts for megachargers. Megapacks hold 3.9 megawatts each so they would support 4 V4 superchargers or one megacharger at less than 1C rates on the packs which is not stressing them at all. They could do 4C and still have 2000 cycle lives if using LFP cells. With a 6 month payoff and 365 cycles per year you could do 4C and burn them out in 5 years with a 10 times ROI still $$$$ laugh all the way to the bank. Chargers are money making machines.
CATL would like to join the chat with sodium ion which they took from the lab bench to mass production in 5 years. One third the cost of lithium ion tech it’s why those are already in sub $10000 EVs that would kill every domestic automaker herself they were allowed to be sold here. They meet European crash tests which are harder than ours. If a smart car passes fedgov tests any four door hatchback sized car will too. BYD has a $14,000 plug in hybrid that seats 5 is the size of a Model 3 Tesla and gets 108mpg when in hybrid mode. Mexico gets them next year when BYD opens their factory there. They won’t be $14k probably 25K and they will.sell out day one for whole years production run bank on it.
These guys went gigafactory this year too.
https://natron.energy/our-technology
Natrion would also like to join the chat.
I live at the 40th parallel in the Midwest. There is about a 3 month window for the weather to potentially knock the stuffing out of battery range. If an EV is the only household car, you can't really make advanced travel plans during that time period which is the end of November thru the first couple weeks of February.
Handmade until it’s automated.................
Which it won’t be
bttt
“120kWh in 9 min is 6.66C so you need 792kw over 9min...”
Didn’t realize they charged at 1000 volts. They must put bunches of cells in series to accommodate that voltage.
Do you know the charging efficiency. In other words, how many kwh do you need to put in over and above what the batteries retain. Can’t be much because otherwise the batteries would get real hot.
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