And all of them will have 10% the energy density of liquid hydrocarbon fuels.
Doesn’t matter for surface transport. You can make a 1000km vehicle with 400wh/kg cells the size of a 5 passenger sedan it’s already been done. Manganese cells can do nearly 900wh/kg that’s a 2000+ km range. Totally unnecessary the average person drives 37 miles per day or less. A 100 mile range covers 99% of all daily drives in the USA. 400 covers every daily drive even uber drivers can’t do 400+ in urban road conditions in a 12 hour day. Average spies in urban areas is 30mph or less.
Liquid hydrocarbons will run out that’s a fact. I’m a geologist we have 40 ish years left and that’s at current rates of use that’s not counting the 4 other billion people in Africa, India and China that also want to burn them at Western rates. It’s not possible to do so with 6 let alone 8 billion at EU rates of consumption. It’s just cold hard math. I have spent 20 year on 6 of 7 continent’s looking for, production and exploitation of total hydrocarbon systems you can take it as an expert industry assessment we have 40 years at most. A lot less with Asian middle and African middle classes rising fast.
Metals don’t get used up you can recycle them so once you mine something it’s in the circular economy then. Lithium is not all that rare there is enough for a billion EVs just in the Midland basin alone more if we pull back SWD water and strip the lithium out of it using UT Austin tech.
It’s moot , sodium is already here , with sulfur, silicon or graphene/graphite or Prussian blue or white which are iron potassium or sodium hydroxides. Calcium and magnesium ion as well, the DOD is already getting aluminum graphene cells. Lithium is just a stepping stone to much higher energy density cells and also elements so common you eat them.
You only need 160wh/kg to have 360 mile range 5 passenger sedan one is sitting in my steel building right now. It’s lighter by 200lbs vs the Volvo sitting next too it. It also costs 2 cents or under in energy per mile vs 13 for the Volvo is it’s 6 times cheaper per mile. Every new cell in production is 300+ wh/kg some are 800 ,900+ that means that Model 3 sized pack with those cells is 720miles with 300wh/kg cells it goes up from there.
Aircraft need dense fuel, there is plenty of biomass to turn into that since aircraft are only ten percent or less of liquid fuels use world wide. The USA makes over a billion tonnes of wasted per year that could be turned into liquids using WWII level tech. Ships don’t need liquids they can run off compressed or liquid gasses a lot do LNG or CNG. Here again biogas can take over for when not if hydrocarbons from the ground are too valuable to burn to the sky. Which is the worse possible use for them. Every bbl that gets burnt to the sky is lost forever and the earth is not making more in human timescales. Plastics,lubricants,medications, adhesives, polymers, all are more valuable and as much of the 400+ million year blessing should be saved for those uses. Humans have the technology to leave all of those resources for better uses today it’s all a matter if will to make the transition. That transition is happening and coming regardless of if people want it too. There are 8 million and climbing we simply don’t have the resources to keep doing what our species has. So the generations that benefited the most from the era of cheap easy
Hydrocarbons should also contribute to the necessary transition. Which hawe zero to do with carbon in the air it’s a resource management problem with an over populated planet. Humans will at our current rate burn through 400+ million years of fossil sunshine in just over 200 years clearly that is not sustainable in any way shape or form.
Here is the actual data. No need at all for 400+ mile EVs or any car for that matter if you can fuel at home or in 6 min from a HVDC point. Fully 96% of all trips at under 36 miles. We are an urban nation 75% or people live in urban areas. For the every edge cases less than 1% of all trips or people a small genset burning ethanol or methanol could give 600+ mile ranges with ten gallons of those. Again with manganese cells you could make a 1200 mile EV at the same pack size as a model 3 has today. 160wh/kg vs 800 is a factor of 4 more range for the same size and weight. Nearly everyone would be fine with a 300 mile 6 min charge. Most people would need to charge one every ten days not every day. Only uber drivers might hit 300 miles in a day every day but they will be obsolete when not if Tesla cybercabs take the entire market with drone cars that remote recharge via wireless charging. Uber CEO already said they are partnering w/o Tesla on cybercab they admit they can’t fight it so join them or be irrelevant.
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/how-many-miles-does-the-average-person-drive-a-year.html