A factor of significance.
The perpetual presumption that Trump overperforms polls is always at risk. The pollsters will be able to make adjustments to address it. One would think in the final days that they will do that, or already have done it.
Being MOE in every battleground is a bit positive. There is a tendency to add Georgia and NC to the list, but an examination of population growth in those states does NOT show black population surge. Georgia had black population surge which had led to Kemp’s concern about Stacey whatever her name was.
But it has stopped. There is no further proportional rise there since 2020. There had been pre 2020.
Excluding the hurricane, which there does seem to be enough time to address, NC and Georgia don’t look horrible — and let’s keep in mind that sampling is not showing Trump erosion and it would if pollsters could not reach hurricane affected population. It is VERY unlikely that they are trying to adjust for that.
So . . . 2020 40,000 votes spread among several states decided the election. That was all, whether they were cheated or not, the total was about 40K. There is a strong sense that number has been erased.
His odds look good.
how many illegal votes did they produce to clear by 40K? millions?