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To: DallasBiff
"Yet the last polling data going into the election in 1980 had Jimmy Carter winning by nine points."

This is a total myth. Carter had been up early in the election cycle, but Reagan pulled ahead after the debates. Polls showed Reagan ahead, and his win was not a surprise at all. The last three polls before the election all showed Reagan up by 10+ points.


6 posted on 10/13/2024 9:03:40 AM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Wayne07

Look at the horrific CBS poll. No different today.


10 posted on 10/13/2024 9:21:21 AM PDT by Bookshelf
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To: Wayne07

Sorry, but you are cleverly selective in your use of certain polls to come up with your accusation.

One poll, DMI, is an outlier. Throw that out and you will see a close polling with pluses for both Carter and Reagan. If you look at the October 26 polling, they are balanced and within the margin of error.

Also, you are not recognizing a trait of the professional (and frequently biased) polling groups, that after using polls early in the campaign to shape and influence voter sentiment, as Election Day approaches they start polling towards the eventual outcome, because they want to protect their reputations for business in the next election cycle.

Just look at the early polling in several past campaigns - Carter leading Reagan the old B-movie actor, by double digits; Mondale leading Reagan by double digits (he lost 49 states); Dukakis leading Bush by 17 points (another landslide).

In two weeks, polls will be somewhat closer to reality as these pollsters try to protect their reputations. Then they’ll be saying stuff like “we saw the last minute changes” or “the undecideds broke for Trump” or other nonsense. (By the way, there no undecided. They are people who are already decided but just think it’s none of your damn business.)


13 posted on 10/13/2024 10:52:02 AM PDT by oldbill
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