“Sorry, but you are cleverly selective in your use of certain polls to come up with your accusation.”
That is a list of every major poll, I was not selective.
“One poll, DMI, is an outlier. Throw that out and you will see a close polling with pluses for both Carter and Reagan.”
False, CSR was also +10 points for Reagan. And ABC/Harris, while not showing 10points, had Reagan +5.
Remember, the final debate between Reagan and Carter was Oct 28th, just weeks before the election, so there was late movement.
Lastly, just step back and take the bigger view. Leading up to the 1980 election. Reagan was ahead in 22 of 27 polls, Carter led in ZERO polls taken after Oct 30.
It is just stupid to say that Reagan’s win was a surprise, or that the polls didn’t see it.
What is stupid is that you didn’t grasp what I said.
Late polls always converge to the real voter sentiments because polling organizations are trying to save their reputations for future business.
You cite polls only in the last weeks of the campaign, when pollsters were done with vote persuasion and drifting toward reality.
In 1980, polls in September, August, July, back to January average well in Carter’s column, especially after he knocked off Kennedy. Reagan was thedemocrat’s preferred opponent in those months leading up to the last weeks.
You’re talking to someone who worked in that campaign.
And those same polls had the democrats maintaining the Senate. Reagan coattailed a sweep of 8 democrat seats to bring along the first Republican Senatein decades. The polls were wrong there too.