Changes in mood are more like pendulum swings. There is a natural progression to try something else after 2 terms. Dole was a sacrificial lamb in ‘96. I don’t think Trump could have beaten Obama in ‘12 or even ‘24 if both were eligible. Sometimes top-tier candidates sit it out knowing they’d lose. BJ didn’t. He got lucky and he had the skills-think soccer moms in response to a man’s question.
Think ‘the worst economy in the last 50 years’. (It wasn’t’t that bad.) Just think how the left went to the mat over Clarence Thomas that cost us in ‘92. Add Perot.
Some of these things are unpredictable. Think hurricanes/covid. Then think of how the left capitalized on Katrina and used covid to their advantage. When Monica is worse than a pubic hair on a coke(Thomas) the left will win the argument.
Our leaders are not smart enough. Add the word lazy.