Independents are the big question mark of the year.
Forbes did an explicit survey of partisan affiliation in January and found 45% of the electorate says they are Independents, with 27% GOP and Dem.
No pollster turnout models dare to use this. They are using 2020 Census data or 2020’s election exit polls to determine how to shape the phone call database for tabulation.
It’s the big question of the year. If Independents are 45%, none of the measures the major pollsters are using can be correct.
You can’t measure what people withhold.