I will try to be nice about this....
I have very low confidence in your analysis.
Lol.
I also have low confidence in my analysis, but it makes more sense than anything else I’ve heard. Trump and Junior are fighting for the same votes. Junior will certainly take votes from both Harris and Trump. Trump is fighting for the “Reagan Democrats”, disaffected traditional Democrat voters. Junior presents them with a non-Republican.
Junior has very little appeal to committed Trump voters. (Like us?) He will peal off votes in the middle, those without a firm commitment to either candidate. Biden made the mistake of showing how hideous he is, and reminded everyone of how awful his policies have been. Harris is trying to run a stealth campaign, and remain invisible. The more voters see of her, the more will look for an alternative. Junior presents an alternative.
Trump is a known quantity. Voters already have an opinion about him. Those who remain persuadable make look to Junior if they begin to realize how awful and unlikeable Harris is. Harris is not thrashing about proposing price controls on meat. I mean this the friggin’ Hugo Chavez playbook. There is no way to put lipstick on this pig.