Because she sits at 226 I can show you the numbers for Redfeld that came out tonight showing him winning Pennsylvania and Michigan if you want.
Then again that kinda defeats your narrative doesn’t it.
There are no leads. There are only changes, provided turnout models are held constant, and there has been some tweaking in the last week.
No one knows what the turnout profile will be. No one. In the past week I have seen polls EXPLICITLY say in their crosstabs that they were oversampling blacks. There is entirely too much incorrect use of the word oversample. They used the word correctly.
Sampling 45 Dems and 43 GOP is not oversampling Dems. Oversampling is when you intentionally violate your own turnout model, which CBS did a few days ago. This corrupts the ability to see change.
But the campaign people know this. They won’t corrupt themselves.
Putting that aside, btw, I should like to note that 270 Electoral Votes is not enough to win. Unlike historical norms, of late it has become somewhat common to have Faithless Electors.
If you are relying on 270, it won’t be enough — absent a vicious, violent intervention by Lara Trump at state GOP mechanisms to do everything imaginable to purge the Elector inventory of GOPe.
No it doesn’t. Please shoe me the numbers. Thanks