That’s a tough one to guess. Right now the SCENARIO ANALYSTS at DNC are working overtime to come up with the perfect plan that maximizes their advantages to win in November.
As of today the analysts have been working on this problem for three weeks since the debate. I give them one more week, so THURSDAY, JULY 25, 2024 is my guess.
the perfect plan that maximizes their advantages to win in November.
Step One: Appoint Barack Obama temporary chairman of the Democratic National Committee and replacement chairman of the Democratic National Convention. This might be the most important step. Obama is the only figure among Democrats with the credibility to unify the party from the start around a replacement process—and the party needs it. Democrats would truly believe that his only objective would be to select the candidate best able to defeat Trump. That level of trust is essential because of the elephant in the room: the very real prospect that Democrats would select someone other than Vice President Kamala Harris. No one but Obama could quell that blowback, or indeed the hurt feelings of any faction that doesn’t get their preferred candidate
Step Two: Obama announces that all Democrats must observe the political 11th Commandment for the remainder of 2024. Ronald Reagan’s version was “Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.” For Democrats, the race to succeed Biden must be a positive-case-only affair for each contender. The rule would have to be enforced, in public by party elders via harsh pushback, and in private with an edict that any Democratic consultants who created negative ads about fellow Democrats would be shut out from future business with the Democratic Party.
Step Three: Create mini-conventions. The ideal would be for each state to hold a nominating convention attended by state party members, who would vote on their selection (there is not enough time for a set of flash primaries, as some have suggested). The vote would be non-binding, but it would confer much greater legitimacy on the eventual national convention selection by demonstrating grassroots party support. It would mitigate the perception that a choice was merely a backroom deal from party elites. But since the calendar is an obstacle, a second option would be to hold regional nominating conventions, probably five of them for state party members from the Southwest, Pacific Coast, Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast. Candidates would speak, state delegations would vote, and a signal would be sent to national convention delegates. Does that sound messy? Absolutely. But that’s a feature, not a bug, because...
Step Four: Bring the cameras. Jeffrey Katzenberg is one of the greatest producers in Hollywood history. He’s essentially already producing the Biden campaign. So have him produce the runup to the convention. Five or 10 candidates vying to be the nominee, rushing around to mini conventions, hustling and angling and even stumbling, with the threat of the end of democracy or winning the most powerful position on Earth in the balance. Do you think there would be audience demand for the greatest pop-up reality TV show ever conceived? So, lean into the mess, and leverage the promotional bonanza. In addition to the usual media fare of debates, town halls, and interviews, bring cameras inside to film docu-dramas, reality shows, and social media videos. Embed influencers for a six-week wild ride. Suck up every ounce of media oxygen and solve your nominee’s name recognition problem in one fell swoop.
Step Five: Use all the dollars. Biden would convert his campaign committee to a political action committee and run independent expenditure ads. It is not a problem, as some have suggested, that this entity could not coordinate with the campaign of the new nominee. Is there any doubt about the message when the opponent is a convicted felon who fomented an insurrection? Nor is it a problem that the Biden dollars wouldn’t stretch as far with higher ad rates for independent entities. The new nominee would immediately be flush with his or her own campaign funds from the entire Democratic donor base (there’s $100 million already waiting). Added together, the Democratic Party’s total budget would overflow within weeks. Not to mention that while the nominee runs traditional ads, the Biden PAC can invest more in creative nontraditional media, resulting in an unprecedented and more effective 1-2 punch in the fight against Trump.
Are there different right answers? Of course. The point is that there are plans available. There are answers available. There are ways to come out of the next seven weeks with a unified Democratic Party, a windfall of free media coverage, a geyser of fundraising, and an unparalleled communications strategy that would put Democrats in the best possible position to win and save America.