Trump needs moderates and independents, but he can’t afford to lose his pro-life base. Pro-lifers have been part of winning coalition’s since Reagan. If the Republicans lose even half of the pro-life base then you can kiss any Presidential election goodbye.
I would say you are wrong Lots of people will say Oh I am pro life to avoid social scrutiny then given the actual ballot choice will privately vote pro choice Kansas, for one and , Florida is about too as well. I would be shocked if Florida measure doesn’t pass. The fact is 60+% are in favor of at least 12 to 15 weeks some polls show higher. I know tons of fiscal conservatives, nationalists and America first who are pro-choice all young to early middle age professionals with high education attainment. If Texas put choice on the ballot it would pass here for sure. Since we don’t have referendum the choice then is vote out the incumbents who passed one of the most restrictive laws in the country or leave the incumbents in since the primary is over that’s the choice. In my social circle it’s about 50/50 for people who are usually solid red voters the younger ones are all voting blue on this issue alone, girlfriends and wives have much sway plus no one wants to go to Kansas if the birth control fails. Remember these are pro-choice people who happen to be right of middle to begin with. So it’s better to have referendum so you don’t have to punish politicians who voted against your will on just one issue. Make no mistake young women are single issue voters on this and so are thier partners.